Maria Sharapova may be No. 4 in the WTA rankings and Ana Ivanovic only sixth, but it's Sharapova who's sixth in the Race standings while Ivanovic has already clinched a spot in Madrid. And if Sharapova’s shoulder struggles continue to keep her sidelined – she pulled out of this week’s event in Stuttgart – she might slide out of the top eight. Serena Williams is in the same boat – she’s entered three events this fall, but few would venture to guess how many she’ll actually play. Venus has also tended to play sparingly during the fall in recent years but this season, she's taken on a full schedule of events and seems to be making a real push to qualify. So in practice, she could be in a better position than her sister.
If the three play two or three events and perform to their usual standards, they should be able to add the extra points they need to avoid being elbowed aside by players who rack up a handful of points every week. If not, the players right behind them have a sitting target.
Thre's ample opportunity for everyone to gain ground. With two Tier I events (Moscow and Zurich) and two Tier II events left to play, a player who competes every week and goes unbeaten could earn about 1,400 points. Any player in the Top 50 who managed to pull off such a run would earn herself a spot in Madrid, but barring the improbable, only the Top 20 have a realistic chance. And even within the Top 20, the chances look slim for Bammer, Golovin, and Hingis.
There’s one more factor to consider this year. A little-known rule states that, “at their sole discretion and taking into account extraordinary circumstances, the WTA Tour may select the 8th player for participation in the singles draw.” This reads like a more arbitrary version of a well-established ATP rule, which gives a top 20 player who has won a Grand Slam that year an automatic spot in the ATP Masters Cup – no need to finish in the Top 8.
It’s never come into play on the women’s side before, but this year is the first time that not just one but two Grand Slam winners – Serena and Venus – could fail to qualify fir the season-ending championships. If one finishes outside the top 8, will the WTA boot the eighth qualifier and hand out a wildcard for the first time? And what if both finish outside the Top 8? Things could get really interesting. Another big drawcard, Maria Sharapova, os also on the bubble – imagine for yourself the dilemma if Sharapova, Serena and Venus finish 8, 9, and 10.
HANDICAPPING THE FIELD
Taking all that into account, here's what the players have to do and how likely they are to do it (see the latest standings):
1. Justine Henin – Qualified.
2. Jelena Jankovic – Qualified.
3. Svetlana Kuznetsova – Qualified
4. Ana Ivanovic – Qualified
5. Anna Chakvetadze – Also in pretty good shape, since she's fifth in the Race, is in good form, plays a full schedule, and rarely gets hurt.
6. Maria Sharapova – She really needs to get out there and play, but if she does, her chances are pretty good because she's roughly 500 points ahead of the current No. 8, Daniela Hantuchova.
7. Serena Williams – She has a 100 point lead over Venus, which helps, but she has three problems: She is perpetually injured these days, she doesn't play much even when healthy, and she doesn't like indoor surfaces all that much even when healthy. If she is able to come out and play, she has a good shot. If she chooses to follow her usual schedule, or cannot get healthy, she runs a real risk of being overtaken by a lesser player who simply plays a lot of events.
8. Venus Williams – Her position is much the same as Serena's, except a little weaker. The good news for Venus this fall is, at least she's already out there playing – and winning. If she can keep it up, she has a good shot.
9. Daniela Hantuchova – She's quite far behind Venus, but knowing her, she will probably play three more events this year. Maybe even four. And if she can pick up a few semifinals here and there, she might well pass Venus. So she is a very genuine contender.
10. Marion Bartoli – Her situation is almost exactly like Hantuchova's: she plays a lot, and wins a fair number of matches as a result (even though she also loses a lot). But things will be harder for Bartoli – she's farther behind and she's shown only slight signs of picking things up since her disappointing hardcourt summer.
11. Nadia Petrova – She is on Bartoli's heels, and she too plays a lot, and she's better indoors. She is probably, other than Hantuchova, the #1 candidate to replace Venus.
12. Dinara Safina – 500 points off the pace, and likely to lose her head if she manages to get close to the top
13. Shahar Peer – She wins a lot of matches, but rarely goes deep at big events, which will make it hard for her to gain ground.
14. Patty Schnyder – Zurich is usually the only event she does well in at this time of year, but she would need at least one other final to contend.
15. Nicole Vaidisova – 600 points back, so her only chance is to make a Tier I final (Moscow or Zurich) which she's never doen before.
16. Elena Dementieva – Probably better indoors than most of the players around her in the Race, but is having a very difficult year since her injury this spring.
17. Amelie Mauresmo – If she could post results comparable to those she had before her appendicitis, she might still contend. If she stays in her post-illness form, forget it.
18. Sybille Bammer – Having an amazing year, especially considering what her career was like before. But she's gotten this high mostly with quarterfinals and some semifinals. To be a serious contender for Madrid, she'll need some finals and titles at big events, and she doesn't seem to have reached that level yet.
19. Martina Hingis – 800 points back, which is a huge deficit, and she has been very bad since her injury this summer. Her only chance was to dominate the way she did during her glory years in 2000, and not playing in Suttgart has pretty much killed that possiblity.
20. Tatiana Golovin – She has one title this year, but to have any hope of qualifying for Madrid, she needs at least two more, one of them a Tier I. She's just too far back to have any real hope – and, given her history, she's likely to get hurt if she does manage to win enough matches to contend.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Quantity counts as much as quality does in the race to fill the four remaining spots for Madrid. That means the players who tend to have decent results as well as play a full schedule – Chakvetadze, Hantuchova, Petrova – are as likely to qualify as the players who do brilliantly when they play but haven't been showing up that often — Sharapova, Serena, Venus. It's up to the latter three to put in the matches or risk getting overtaken by slower but steadier colleagues.
The calculations in this story are unofficial and may use forward-looking information that can be affected or changed by future events.
