by Pete Bodo
I must admit, I'm still perplexed by France's decision to play Gilles Simon in the second singles slot in tomorrow's Davis Cup opener against Serbia's Novak Djokovic. In my eyes, this has given the Serbs an enormous advantage, but who knows—it may turn out to be one of the more cagey tactical decisions we've seen in the Davis Cup. But I have my reservations, for a couple of reasons.
Since winning the first match he ever played against Djokovic (Marseille, 2008), Simon lost their next four meetings. In two of those, including their most recent clash in Beijing a few weeks ago, Djokovic laid down the hammer, winning in straights. The Beijing score, 6-3, 6-2, was the most lopsided in their head-to-head career. I dunno, maybe Simon has scorched the lines and destroyed his teammates in the practice sessions arlier this week?
I've also always felt that is Simon is—how do you say this diplomatically?—a little soft (there is no way, I guess). He's a nice guy, a happy-go-lucky, lovin' life kind of guy, which is just the kind of guy who is likely to find himself in way, way over his head when the the playground turns into a battlefield. The Serbian attitude, that this Davis Cup final is a critical, life and history shaping moment, may be a bit excessive, but it signaled Serbia's deadly serious intent. Of course, that could work against them—there's no pressure worse than the demands you place on yourself—but it can also be intimidating.
Of course, not too many men have a positive head-to-head record against Djokovic. But Llodra is 1-1, and he won their last meeting. To me, that's serious psychological ammo, even though Llodra is a mere 3-3 in Davis Cup singles. But guess what? Simon has won only two Davis Cup matches, both of them dead rubbers.
Llodra, by contrast, beat Juan Monaco of Argentina and Fernando Verdasco of Spain in live rubbers in 2010, although both matches were on French soil—and indoor hard courts. Llodra also played winning doubles in those ties, and he's 6-1 overall in his last seven matches.
Also, unless that indoor surface is extremely slow, Llodra can seriously hurt you with his attacking game, and have you wondering just what degree of aggression he's going to bring to the match. Djokovic would still be a big favorite against Llodra, but the match-up would give him much more to think about and fret over.
And let's remember, Llodra is just outside the Top 20 in singles, and coming off a great week at the Masters 1000 in Paris, while Simon languishes at almost double that ranking number (42). Simon lost the last set he played in a singles tournament this year, 6-0, and won just one match in Paris. Here's how French captain Guy Forget explained his choice: "I expect Gilles to play a great match against Novak. I expect Michael to play great doubles with Arnaud [Clement]. They’ve done so many times in the past. In my opinion, that was the best choice for the French team. The Sunday matches probably will count. That leaves me probably some more options doing it this way.”
I guess the reasoning is that if Llodra had played singles, he'd be less fresh for the crucial "swing" match, the doubles in which he'll team with Arnaud Clement to battle Nenad Zimonjic and Viktor Troicki. But while doubles certainly is more important in Davis Cup than tournament tennis, and Davis Cup singles matches are best-of-five, I would think that a guy could bounce back after a tough singles to play pretty good doubles the following day. I just don't know if the "freshness" factor warrants keeping your doubles star out of the singles.
Of course, if you're a fan of "secret weapon" strategies, Forget could always insert Llodra to play a potentially decisive fifth rubber. But then Llodra will have the opposite problem—he may have to face Tipsarevic in singles 24 hours after a potentially tough doubles match. Given that a Llodra-Tipsarevic match is a toss-up (Tipsarevic is 1-0 against Llodra, but 0-1 against Simon, which qualifies as "insufficient data"), would you want to concede the fitness/fatigue issue to your opponent?
Well, if Forget pulls this off, he'll be called a genius. And I have to confess, I asked former U.S. Davis Cup captain Patrick McEnroe about this and he thinks Forget made the right call—keep Llodra fresh for the doubles. I still think it's unnecessarily risky, and most of all it suggests that the French may be less confident—or is it more cavalier?—than they hope or have a right to be. On paper, the tie ought to be 1-1 after the first day of play, so why view the doubles as a must-win?
So much for that. Much of the commentary leading up to the tie has focused on Serbia's opportunity to join the elite teams that have won the Davis Cup, and on how important the tie is to Djokovic. He's certainly done nothing to downplay the stakes or the potential significance (personal, national and even international) of the tie. But the guy who's been forgotten in this Cinderella story is Gael Monfils, whom you ignore at your peril.
Opening the tie with Monfils vs. Tipsarevic gives both teams hope. The French must be pleased because on paper, Monfils ought to win that match. If he does, it might to some degree take the crowd out of play, and it certainly would put Djokovic under a fair amount of pressure when he meets Simon in the second rubber. But if you're a Serb partisan, you have to like that Tipsarevic can go out there and swing from the heels. He's the underdog, and he's got Djokovic to back him up should things turn out badly. Tipsarevic is lucky he doesn't have to hang around, watching the first match, feeling the pressure build. . . and build. Monfils is less lucky, because the crowd will be all over him, and if he doesn't get off to a good start he'll make his own life very difficult.
Monfils has only played four Davis Cup singles matches, but he's won the last three. He sometimes seeems to thrive on emotional energy, and not always the best kind—during his win over the unexpectedly tough Robert Kendrick at the U.S. Open, he busted out a sneer as he mocked the fans chanting Kendrick's name. This penchant for getting sucked into the gestalt could get him in big, big trouble in Serbia, where they probably will play a little rougher than the spectators at Flushing Meadows. Almost any acccomplished Davis Cup player will tell you that Rule No. 1 is to avoid getting into it with the crowd; stay focused, ignore the noise and hubbub. That might be hard to do in the Belgrade Arena.
Take a look at the photo of Monfils and Tipsarevic atop the news stories at the Davis Cup website (it's presently in their rotating carousel), and tell me: Does Tipsarevic, who will meet Monfils in the first match of the tie, look like he's nervous, or like he's the big, bad wolf licking his chops as he eyes the baby lamb?
For more on this tie, tune in to our latest podcast (it ought to be up not long after this post). Easy Ed McGrogan asked for our predictions. Steve Tignor and Ed called it 3-1 for Serbia. Off-line, Pat McEnroe called the same score, 3-1 and whatever happens in the meaningless match.
I'm going whole hog for Djokovic and company and calling it a sweep, 3-0. I can think of many positive ways to describe the players on the French team, and the squad in general, but "tough" isn't high on the list, and on this occasion toughness will count more than talent, strategy, or technique. And I think the decision to play Simon will hurt the French.
I see wolves and lambs in this one.