Robin Soderling [5] vs. Roger Federer [1] (Arthur Ashe Stadium, second night match)
All right, Federer fanatics: I know you can name who your man played in each of his 22 career Grand Slam finals. But can you name everyone he’s faced in the quarterfinals of a major?
I’m guessing only the most diehard of Fed freaks—the “RF” tattoo is a dead giveaway—could rattle off the names. From 2005 to 2009, Federer was 20-0 in Slam quarterfinals, and not one of those matches went five sets. His opponents were mere stepping stones en route to the final four and beyond, forgotten as quickly as they were beaten.
It’s been a different story this season. We know Federer’s most recent quarterfinal adversaries because two of them won the match—Soderling at the French Open and Tomas Berdych at Wimbledon—and the other, Nikolay Davydenko, outclassed Federer for a set and a half in Melbourne before ultimately wilting.
Will Federer run into more trouble in Wednesday’s quarterfinal against Soderling? Based on their last two encounters, there’s reason to think so. They met at the same stage of the U.S. Open last year, and while Federer prevailed in four, Soderling nearly took the match the distance, holding a set point in the fourth-set tiebreaker. When they next collided in Paris, Soderling finally broke through, beating Federer for the first time in 13 tries and ending his consecutive Slam semifinal streak at 23.
Serving will go a long way in determining how their 14th meeting will play out. When Federer serves well, there’s almost no one who can beat him. When Soderling serves well, there’s almost no one he can’t beat. He’ll need all the “free” points he can get against Federer, who is faster, has a better transition game, and is more confident at net. The Swede managed to hang with the Swiss on the ground at Roland Garros, but Soderling will have less time to set up his blistering shots on the Ashe asphalt. Everything suggests that Federer should dominate once the ball is in play.
With that said, Soderling has made significant inroads on Federer this summer. How? It’s simple, really: He’s been ultra-aggressive when chances came, and he hasn't missed much. Soderling must employ the same strategy tonight if he hopes to score another upset. He’s certainly capable of pulling it off, but everything must be clicking. Federer has a way of throwing wrenches into opponents’ plans. Just ask one his fans.
The Pick: Federer in four
Ed McGrogan is an assistant editor for TENNIS.com. Follow him on Twitter.