The first Monday of the U.S. Open is always bittersweet, marking as it does the start of autumn’s traditional march of the yuppies back to New York. Like the swirling winds and the (grating) talk of Bill Parcells vs. Terrell Owens—come back to Philly, T.O., all is forgiven!—the Open is another sign of summer’s premature end. We have to say goodbye to the beaches of Long Island and hello to our tiny apartments, with one last Heineken-in-a-cup at Flushing Meadows to soften the blow.
To try to forget about—I mean prepare for—the Open, I spent a couple days at the very end of the island, in Montauk. This is a rugged and eclectic little spot compared to the neighboring Hamptons, but it’s slowly been smoothed and leveled by the limitless and ever-expanding power of New York money. Surfers and fisherman can still be found, and the famous Memory Motel somehow stands in the center of town, but Keith Richards no longer slumps at the bar. No scruffy rock-and-rollers have followed him to Montauk, either. Sometimes the town looks like one long silver Mercedes SUV—with the exception of my tan Chevy Elantra rental, of course. Nice car, I must say; I like it almost as much as the Ford Focus. (As you can tell, driving any car is a wondrous experience for a New Yorker.)
On cue, the weather has turned since I left, to a disturbingly fall-like drizzle, which may put a crimp in the Open’s first day. I’ll be out there nonetheless, checking in on Andy Roddick and Florent Serra—the Italian is a solid player, though Roddick would probably strangle him before losing another first-rounder at the Open—Richard Gasquet vs. American Phillip Simmonds, the all-Spaniard baseline bash between Nicolas Almagro and David Ferrer, and some big-hitting women in Sania Mirza vs. Karolina Sprem and Jelena Jankovic vs. Gisela Dulko. I’ll try to avoid Donald Young vs. Novak Djokovic, out of patriotic duty.
What else do I see in the early rounds? Let’s take a quick spin through each quarter of the draws.
Men’s first quarter
If Roger Federer is at all thrown off by Mary Carillo’s semi-accusation of tanking—which he isn’t, I’m sure—this section should ease his mind. His toughest potential opponent in the first three rounds is, um, Tim Henman? Anyone remember what happened between them at Wimbledon? The next-highest seed in the quarter is the fast-fading James Blake, but the real threats should come from the perennially hot-and-cold Tomas Berdych, who has a win over Sire Jacket (and one over Nadal this summer); the fast-rising Dmitry Tursunov, who took a set from Federer in Toronto; and the solid-in-Cincy Juan Carlos Ferrero. Note: U.S. teen wildcard Sam Querrey has a chance to win two rounds; he faces Phillip Kohlschreiber to start and might get Gaston Gaudio in the second round, a guy who, when he tanks, leaves no room for doubt.
Semifinalist: Federer
Men’s second quarter
The top two seeds are David Nalbandian and Nikolay Davydenko, but I’ve got the somewhat-saner-than-usual Fernando Gonzalez coming out of this quarter. Of interest: Marat Safin and Nalbandian in a possible second-rounder; Tommy Haas and Gonzo in the third round; U.S. college delinquent Ryan Sweeting vs. Guillermo Coria in the first round; and a soft patch for Andy Murray.
Semifinalist: Gonzalez
Men’s third quarter
At the top of this heap sits a shaky Ivan Ljubicic, who, as always, has played a lot of tennis this year. After that, Marcos Baghdatis, Richard Gasquet, Andy Roddick, and Djokovic all look strong. Lleyton Hewitt is also lurking, ready to give Roddick fits, though he’s been injured and presumably off the court for the last two weeks. Oh yeah, two old guys named Dre—Pavel and Agassi—face off; you may see some of it on TV Monday night. I think Andre will make it through, if only because Pavel has similarly lost a step in his 30s. If Agassi wins, he gets Baghdatis, a big-match player who probably won’t get tight when it comes to ending the great one’s career. Probably.
Semifinalist: Gasquet
Men’s fourth quarter
Rafael Nadal vs. Mark Philippoussis: At least you know Flip will hit big and move forward on Nadal’s short balls. Other than that, Gael Monfils, every tennis critic’s next-big-breakout choice, could face the winner of Max Mirnyi and Wesley Moodie in the second round. If Monfils can survive that frightening barrage and build some momentum…no, I can’t make him my pick. In the top half here, you could see another popular next-big-thing, Switzerland’s Stanislas Wawrinka, do his first notable damage.
Semifinalist: Nadal
Women’s first quarter
Speculating wildly, I thought Serena Williams would play a major name in the third round, just in time for it to be shown on CBS on Saturday. I was wrong; she’s scheduled to play the world No. 1, Amelie Mauresmo, in the fourth round, in time for CBS to show it on Labor Day. It’s a trendy quarter otherwise, where the stylish vet Martina Hingis, the hot (playing) Ana Ivanovic, and the U.S. hopeful Alexa Glatch will all be hanging out.
Semifinalist: Hingis
Women’s second quarter
Maria Sharapova may be tested by Michaella Krajicek in the first round, and by Li Na in the fourth. But the next-highest seed, Nadia Petrova, left it all on the clay courts of Europe this spring and is an upset waiting to happen. Which means she’ll go all the way, of course. No, she won’t: This quarter, and maybe the tournament, is Sharapova’s.
Semifinalist: Sharapova
Women’s third quarter
Here we have the much-anticipated Kuznetsova-Dementieva section of the draw. If that’s not enticing enough, you’ve also got Vaidisova, Benesova, Safarova, Zvonareva, Jidkova, Rodionova, Domachowska, and Kirilenko. Was there really a time when a woman with the name “Chris Evert” was a top tennis player? Come back, Chrissie, just so we can say your name! For now, I’ll be watching the one Eastern European I didn’t mention above, Jelena Jankovic; the wacky, spunky Serb is probably due to be upset, but who cares.
Semifinalist: Kuznetsova
Women’s fourth quarter
Justine Henin-Hardenne seems to have managed her fragile body and soul well this time around. She pulled out of Montreal and then looked strong in winning New Haven over the weekend. I don’t see much standing between her and the semis. Of interest: The continued return of Alicia Molik, who would get H-H in the second round. And, needless to say, the all-Russian showdown between Loudmila Skavronskaia and Ekaterina “Who are you calling a” Bychkova. Now that’s what women’s tennis is all about!
Semifinalist: Henin-Hardenne