Out of the Gate

Monte Carlo is still one of the sport’s most scenic, historic, and snazzily-dressed events, but since being dropped from the mandatory Masters list, it isn’t exactly what it used to be. You might say, judging by the participation rate of the Top 4 players over the last three years, that it’s three-fourths of what it once was. Roger Federer skipped it in 2010*, Novak Djokovic did the same last year, and now Federer has foregone it one more time. Rafael Nadal, of course, has always enjoyed his time there. He's done nothing but win it for the last seven years.

Despite Federer’s absence, this year’s edition is still loaded with talent—it is still a Masters tournament, with 1000 points to the winner—as well as implications for the rest of the clay-court season. Think of it as the first turn in a Formula I race that has Paris as its finish line. We’ll see at the end of the week which of the favorites, Nadal or Djokovic, has nosed in front, who might be gaining on them from the outside, and who crashed coming out of the gate.

First Quarter
Djokovic, the adopted hometown boy who has never won here, is in a good spot. He’s rested, he's No. 1 by a comfortable margin and has no points to defend, and he’s been able to practice on these courts for a couple of weeks.

His draw? It's tough in the long run—he might have to go through Ferrer, Murray, and Nadal to win it. In the short run, it’s potentially tricky, but potentially not so much. That’s because two players near him, Bernard Tomic and Alexandr Dolgopolov, are exceptionally unpredictable. Both of them gave him troubles at majors last year, and they can drive any opponent crazy. But they can also go away entirely at any time. More difficult, most likely, will be Ferrer in the quarters. Djokovic straight-setted him in Melbourne and Miami, but each went to one tiebreaker. Ferrer made the final here last year.

Djokovic is on the attack at this event. He can take another piece of his rival Nadal’s turf and deny him the confidence-boost he’s gotten from winning this title the last seven years. Its no small thing; six of those years Rafa went on to win the French Open. But there’s danger for Novak too if he does play Rafa in the final. A loss ends his own streak of seven wins over the Spaniard and would change the dynamic between them for the rest of the clay season.

All of which makes me say as a fan: Glad to see you, Nole.

Also in this section: Houston champ Juan Monaco, who opens with Robin Haase.

Semifinalist: Djokovic

Second Quarter
Andy Murray is in Djokovic’s half. He begins with his own tricky opponent, Viktor Troicki, who almost beat him in Paris in 2011. More dangerous, though, could be the man on the other side of this quarter, Tomas Berdych. The Czech has a 3-2 career record against Murray, and is one of the few guys who can hit through his defenses. But the two have never played on clay, and Murray won their latest meeting in straight sets in Dubai. On the other hand, Berdych should come in with confidence. He just finished winning nine straight sets, in singles and doubles, over the Serbian Davis Cup team in leading his team to the semis.

Last year Murray began building his game back up at this event. After drawing whistles for drop-shotting a lame Gilles Simon, he took a set from Nadal in the semis. Here’s hoping we see something similar after his poor performance in the Miami final. This would seem to be the time and place for Murray to try out any new wrinkles, especially forehand wrinkles, that he and coach Lendl have ironed into his game in practice.

Also here: Melzer, Nishikori, and wild card Paul-Henri Mathieu, who opens with Donald Young.

Sleeper: Marin Cilic, who showed signs of life in beating David Nalbandian in Davis Cup last weekend on clay

Most talked-about haircut thus far: Murray's Lendl-like buzz. Now he just needs to start decking people with his forehand and the transformation will be complete

Semifinalist: Berdych

Third Quarter
The biggest beneficiary of Federer’s absence is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. The world No. 5 slips into the No. 4 spot, and out of the bug guns’ range until the semifinals. Tsonga, who is coming off a disappointing Davis Cup loss to John Isner on these courts a week ago and isn’t at his best on clay, has a decent draw. Kohlscheiber, Verdasco, and Dodig are on his side, and the second-highest seed in the quarter is Tipsarevic. This section looks up for grabs.

Also here: Gilles Simon and Milos Raonic, who will get a meeting with Tipsy if he wins his first round

Not here anymore: Ivan Ljubicic, who lost the final match of his career, to his countryman Dodig, on Sunday. I’ll have a post on Ljuby later on Monday.

Semifinalist: Verdasco

Fourth Quarter
Can anyone derail Nadal’s trip to an eighth straight final here? Rafa will start with the winner of Nieminen and Stepanek. The closest seed to him, and the closest thing to a threat, is Florian Mayer, a weirdly talented player who recorded a win over Nadal in Shanghai last fall. This, however, is a long way from Shanghai. Rafa has had his knee troubles, he hasn't practiced as much as he would like for this event, and he's without a title since last year's French Open. None of which has stopped him in Monte Carlo before.

On the other side is Nicolas Almagro, the 8th seed, who is due for a strong result at a clay Masters event, and who took a set from Nadal in Madrid back in 2010. With Lopez, Wawrinka, Andujar, and Starace in his path, Nico should make it to the quarters to face Rafa this time. Almagro, who makes his living on dirt, is due; but I’ve said that many times before, and I'm still saying it.

Sleeper: Andujar

Semifinalist: Nadal

Semifinals: Djokovic d. Berdych; Nadal d. Verdasco

Final: Djokovic d. Nadal

As for Federer, I wrote last week that the last time he skipped Monte Carlo was in 2009, when he went on to win the French Open and Wimbledon. I was wrong; the last time he skipped it was 2010, when he went on to . . . not win either of them. But take heart Fed fans, it’s not like his Monte Carlo tune-up work in '09 could have meant all that much. He lost in his second round that year to Stan Wawrinka. You wouldn't have wanted to see him dothat* again, would you?