Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray were born a week apart and have each realized coming-of-age moments in Miami. The former junior foes face off in Sunday's Sony Ericsson Open final, and if the five-set thriller they staged in the Australian Open semifinals is any indication, this should be another absorbing clash between two men whose comprehensive court coverage means no shot is a lost cause.
Both players have produced watershed moments in the Sunshine State: Djokovic claimed his first career Masters title by winning in South Florida in 2007, and Murray swept Djokovic in the final two years later to become the first Briton to rule Key Biscayne. Skeptics point to Murray's 0-3 record in major finals as evidence that he comes up small when playing for silverware. But the fourth-ranked Scot has been superlative in Masters finals, posting an 8-1 record.
Stylistically, the two are similar: Both men are snipers when returning serve, possess potent two-handed backhands, own astonishing athleticism and startling speed, and share a long-running rivalry that creates tactical familiarity.
"We kind of play similar, as well. We grew up together. We know each other really well," Djokovic said. "We have been rivals since and good friends off the court. It's going to be a good match."
Murray received walkover wins from Milos Raonic and Rafael Nadal and figures to be physically fresher, having played just three matches to reach his third Miami final. However, Djokovic may well be sharper, given the fact that he has not surrendered a set en route to his fourth final in Crandon Park.
Every tennis match is a two-character drama written with strokes rather than words, and the fact that both men are so skilled on the counter-attack and strike so accurately on the run can create points with eye-popping plot twists.
There are two key questions in this match: How will Djokovic, who burst out of the blocks in authoritative starts against David Ferrer and Juan Monaco, respond if he has to play from a set behind? And how well will Murray, who has focused on solidifying his second serve and juicing up his forehand with new coach Ivan Lendl, defend his second serve against the world's most punishing returner?
Murray hits a flatter first serve, and if the fourth seed, who dropped just six points on first serve in his 6-2, 7-5 sweep of Djokovic in last month's Dubai semifinals, serves 60 percent or better, I believe he will win. The top-ranked Serbian, who has lost the opening set just three times in posting a 19-2 record this year, has usually defended his second serve better in his wins over Murray.
It's almost absurd to suggest a man who has registered an 89-8 record since the start of 2011 and is reigning champion at three of the four majors has something to prove. However, Djokovic has never successfully defended a Masters 1000 title. He should be highly motivated to do so.
This is truly a toss-up match—Djokovic is 7-5 lifetime vs. Murray, but Murray has won three of their four finals—so it will likely come down to execution, and could be decided in tiebreakers. Murray played high-quality tennis in their last meeting, and if he can summon that level again, I believe he will win. However, Djokovic has been sharper this week and has won nine of his last 10 matches since his loss to Murray. For those reasons, I give Djokovic the slight edge.
The Pick: Djokovic