Every Friday, after the weekend's matches have been determined, Richard Pagliaro will predict the tournament winners. We'll update this page as results come in.
Casablanca (ATP, Semifinals):
Pablo Andujar vs. Flavio Cipolla; Igor Andreev vs. Albert Ramos
Cipolla surprised second-seeded Alexandr Dolgopolov, then saved 10 break points in a 6-3, 6-4 semifinal win over Benoit Paire, but I don't see the Italian's suspect second serve holding up against Andujar. The question is: How will Andujar hold up? The defending champion had to play twice on Friday, dismissing Potito Starace in the morning (6-3, 6-0) then returning to post a 6-4, 1-6, 6-3 quarterfinal win over qualifier Sergio Gutierrez-Ferrol. Though Cipolla won their lone prior meeting, that was five years ago in a Challenger final. Andujar is coming off a fourth-round appearance in Indian Wells, he should be the more confident player, and I see him reaching his second straight Casablanca final.
Last month, Igor Andreev was on the outskirts of the Top 100 playing the Dallas Challenger hard-court final. Today, he's one win from his playing for his first ATP title in seven years. This semifinal should come down to footwork and forehands: Both will run around their backhands to hit their preferred shot all day long. The right-handed Andreev's favored inside-out forehand feeds into Ramos' lefty forehand—and the Spaniard did just enough off that wing to fend off the Russian, 7-6 (4), 7-6 (4), two months ago on red clay in Sao Paulo. I like the way Ramos is hitting his forehand this week—he roped a forehand return on the baseline to score a key second-set break in a 6-3, 6-4 win over Jeremy Chardy today—and if he keeps his nerve we could see an all-Spanish final.
Andujar beat Ramos in straight sets in Indian Wells, is the more consistent player, the higher seed, and the clear favorite, winning all four sets they've played. But I'll ride with Ramos here. He's a rising talent, has beaten three Top 25 players in the last two months, and uses the hook lefty serve to set up his forehand. While I realize this is a risky pick, if Ramos lets his forehand fly and serves with discipline, I think he can win his first ATP title this weekend.
The Pick: Ramos
Copenhagen (WTA, Semifinals):
Angelique Kerber vs. Jelena Jankovic; Caroline Wozniacki vs. Petra Martic
The second-seeded Kerber has fought her way into the semifinals on the strength of three straight three-set wins, including one over the dangerous Mona Barthel in the quarterfinals, 6-2, 0-6, 7-5. The 27-year-old Jankovic started the season aiming to return to the Top 10, but after reaching successive semifinals in Dubai and Kuala Lumpur, she bottomed out in the U.S. spring swing, failing to win a set in opening-round exits at Indian Wells, Miami and Charleston. She now finds herself clinging to No. 20.
This is the first meeting between the pair, a type of match Jankovic needs to win to spark a rankings rise, but Kerber has been the better player this season and is 5-3 against Top 20 opponents in 2012. Jankovic is just 1-4 versus the Top 20. Obviously, you can't rule out a former No. 1, but Kerber shows a bit more offensive ambition, so I favor her.
Two-time defending champion Wozniacki is riding a 13-match winning streak at her home tournament. The world No. 6 started that streak with a 2010 first-round sweep of Martic and should beat her again. Wozniacki has won 16 consecutive sets in Copenhagen. She has not lost a set to Kerber in two prior hard-court meetings, including a 7-6 (4), 6-3 win in the 2011 Copenhagen round of 16. The blonde Dane dismissed Jankovic in the Australian Open fourth round, swept former No. 1 Serena Williams in the Miami quarterfinals, and is comfortable countering on this hard court. Playing her fifth semifinal of the season, Kerber is capable of winning her second indoor title of the season. But this is Wozniacki's title to win and I believe she will.
The Pick: Wozniacki
Barcelona (WTA, Semifinals):
Sara Errani vs. Carla Suarez Navarro; Dominika Cibulkova vs. Sorana Cirstea
We first look at a clay-court connoisseur's special, pitting two women adept at working the angles on dirt. Errani is 8-0 in WTA matches on clay this season; she swept singles and doubles titles in Acapulco last month. Armed with her wondrous one-handed backhand, Suarez Navarro has beaten Errani in two of their prior three clay-court matches. If this is a long match and fitness becomes a factor, I like Errani: She's 4-1 in three-setters this year, while Suarez Navarro is winless when going the distance.
The other semi: Cirstea is more adventurous on serve, producing mixed results—she hit four aces and 10 double faults today—while Cibulkova is a better mover and a more accurate ball striker on the run. The third-seeded Cibulkova combines the strong legs of a grinder with the mentality of a dictator. The 5'3" Slovak strikes her ground strokes with authority, and she reeled off 12 consecutive games to close her quarterfinal thumping of Yuliya Beygelzimer. Cibulkova's ability to command the court excites me, but her inability to close important matches concerns me: She blew a 6-1, 5-2 lead against world No. 1 Victoria Azarenka last month in Miami.
Barcelona has been the Italians' stomping ground in recent years—Roberta Vinci won the title in 2009 and 2011, and Francesca Schiavone beat Vinci in the 2010 final—but I'm tempted to pick Cibulkova, who has more firepower and a 4-2 career edge over the baseliner from Bologna. However, the weather forecast for Barcelona on Sunday calls for a cool, cloudy day with a chance of showers. The court plays slower and is harder to hit through under those conditions, and that should favor the seventh-seeded Errani, who mixes her spins more frequently than the 2009 French Open semifinalist.
The Pick: Errani
Houston (ATP, Semifinals):
Juan Monaco vs. Michael Russell; Feliciano Lopez vs. John Isner
The feel-good story of the spring continues as 33-year-old qualifier Michael Russell, who lives and trains in Houston, followed his upset of top-seeded Mardy Fish with a 6-1, 5-7, 6-3 triumph over Ryan Harrison to reach his first career ATP singles semifinal. Russell, who also reached the doubles semifinal, will be be prepared to pour every piece of himself into his match with Monaco. But the Miami semifinalist has won seven of his last eight matches, owns a 9-2 record on clay this season—including the Vina del Mar title—and is contesting his third semifinal of the season. The Argentine is moving toward the Top 15, and while Russell will be inspired, I don't see him stopping Monaco, who'll be happy to grind long points against the veteran and prevent the prospect of the first all-American Houston final since Andre Agassi faced Andy Roddick in 2003.
If Davis Cup hero Isner beats Lopez he will surpass No. 9 Fish and become the highest-ranked American. Lopez beat Isner in five sets in the Australian Open in January, and if this match follows a similar script, it could come down to tiebreakers. The 15th-ranked Lopez is widely regarded as a fast-surface player, but he has reached two clay-court finals in the past and can slide the lefty slice serve out into the ad side to take opponents completely off the court. I believe Isner is a bit more solid from the baseline and should be confident given his recent Davis Cup wins on red clay over Roger Federer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. For those reasons, I favor Isner. Monaco took down another towering server, Kevin Anderson, in the quarterfinals, and has the clay-court credentials to win the title. But if Isner is hitting his spots on serve—and tiebreakers come into play, where Long John is 12-3—I'm backing the big man.
The Pick: Isner