Senior editor Richard Pagliaro breaks down the weekend's matches and predicts the tournament winners.
WTA Stuttgart (Semifinals):
Victoria Azarenka vs. Agnieszka Radwanska; Maria Sharapova vs. Petra Kvitova
The stars aligned in Stuttgart, as the world's top four players reached a WTA semifinal for the first time since 2009. In the first semi, the two women with the most wins this year—Azarenka and Radwanska—square off for their fifth meeting of the season and first clash on clay. Azarenka has won all four of their 2012 matches and holds a 9-3 edge overall. They share the WTA lead for most wins this year (28), with all four of the fourth-ranked Radwanska's losses coming to Azarenka.
Radwanska suggested that Azarenka exaggerated an ankle injury in her Doha semifinal victory in February, and though both women say they've put that incident in the past, I sense an undercurrent of edginess when they meet. Both are coming off demanding three-set wins—Radwanska rallied for a 3-6, 6-2, 6-3 win over French Open champion Li Na; Azarenka withstood 62 winners from wild card Mona Barthel in a 6-4, 6-7 (3), 7-5 victory—and if resilience comes into play in a third set, I believe Azarenka is physically stronger. Radwanska has the ability to pull off the upset, but I think she'll need a superb serving day to do it. Azarenka managed her emotions well in a challenging quarterfinal win, her two-handed backhand is one of biggest weapons in the game, she's more explosive, and I see her reaching the final.
The Sharapova-Kvitova match is a rematch of the 2011 Wimbledon final. Sharapova showed her ferocity in fighting off a match point to beat Samantha Stosur in a high-quality quarterfinal. If the former No. 1 plays to that level again, she will be tough to beat. I'm a big believer in Kvitova's game, and while I realize clay is not her best surface and she's struggled of late, I favor Petra here because she's a better server, possesses more variety, and seems bolstered by leading the Czech Republic to a Fed Cup semifinal win last weekend. She's also the only semifinalist yet to reach a WTA final this season, so she should be hungry. Kvitova has also been dominant with a roof over her head: She's won 27 consecutive indoor matches.
The third-ranked Czech has been the least consistent of the four semifinalists, but I think she's got the biggest upside. She's also beaten Azarenka four times in a row, including a straight-sets win in the 2011 Madrid final.
ATP Barcelona (Semifinals):
Rafael Nadal vs. Fernando Verdasco; David Ferrer vs. Milos Raonic
An admitted math geek growing up, Raonic played number cruncher in upsetting second-seeded Andy Murray to reach his fourth semifinal of the season. Raonic showed the ability to translate his attacking game to dirt, cracking 14 aces in sweeping Murray. If he's connecting on his wrecking-ball serve, Raonic could threaten Ferrer, who fought off three match points in edging Davis Cup teammate Feliciano Lopez, 6-7 (4), 7-6 (7), 6-3, in two hours and 45 minutes. Based on their respective quarterfinals and the fact Raonic is a rising star, you can make a case for the young Canadian testing the veteran Spaniard. But Ferrer is contesting his sixth straight Barcelona semifinal, won back-to-back clay titles in Buenos Aires and Acapulco earlier this year, and is 3-0 lifetime vs. Raonic, including a 6-1, 6-3 win in Monte Carlo last April. Ferrer should reach his fourth Barcelona final.
Revitalized by snapping his 10-month title drought to win Monte Carlo for a record-extending eighth time last Sunday, Nadal is an immense favorite to snare his seventh Barcelona title. The top seed carries an immaculate 12-0 career record against fellow lefty Verdasco into the their semifinal, including a 5-0 mark on clay. Nadal is a better mover and defender than Verdasco, and has won 32 matches in a row in Barcelona.
Should the all-Spanish final come off, look for Nadal, who owns a 33-4 record in clay-court finals, to continue his Barcelona mastery and prevail over Ferrer for the 14th time in 18 meetings.
The Pick: Nadal