Every Friday, after the weekend's matches have been determined, we'll predict the winner of each tournament.
Davis Cup
United States leads Switzerland, 2-0
A stirring American effort saw Mardy Fish hold his nerve and maintain his aggression in subduing Stanislas Wawrinka, before John Isner shocked Roger Federer in snapping the Swiss stylist’s 15-match Davis Cup singles win streak.
The 16-time Grand Slam champion had lost just once indoors in the last two years, so what are the odds of him losing twice in three days? If Fish has any energy left after his four-hour, 26-minute battle today and can partner Mike Bryan in doubles, the Americans can clinch tomorrow against Federer and Wawrinka. It’s difficult to imagine Federer losing again on his home soil, but I suggested yesterday that if the U.S. split the opening singles, they could pull off the upset. Since they swept opening day, I’ll stick with that pick. Even if Switzerland levels, Isner is 2-1 lifetime vs. Wawrinka, including a straight-sets win on clay.
The Pick: United States
Davis Cup
Czech Republic leads Italy, 2-0
A couple of months after the Czech women won the Fed Cup, the men are in command against Italy. Tomas Berdych and Radek Stepanek have too much firepower for the Italians.
If big serving Daniele Bracciali is hitting his spots, Italy could extend the outcome to Sunday’s reverse singles, but unless the Czechs completely collapse, look for them to cruise into the quarterfinals against Serbia.
The Pick: Czech Republic
Davis Cup
Argentina leads Germany, 2-0
No Juan Martin del Potro, no problem for Argentina, which took charge with singles wins from Juan Monaco and David Nalbandian on the red clay in Bamberg. Don’t be surprised to see Argentine captain Martin Jaite start Nalbandian in place of either Juan Ignacio Chela or Eduardo Schwank to try and clinch the tie in tomorrow’s doubles. Nalbandian and Schwank swept Feliciano Lopez and Fernando Verdasco in last December’s Davis Cup final.
The prospect of a German comeback cannot be completely dismissed. Philipp Petzschner has won major doubles titles at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open and will partner Tommy Haas, who should be inspired in his first Davis Cup appearance on home soil in five years. If Germany wins the doubles, 21st-ranked Florian Mayer has beaten Monaco in five of six meetings, including four of five clay-court clashes, and could level the tie.
Ultimately, I believe Nalbandian, who is 19-2 in Davis Cup matches on clay, is too tough and will close it out either in Saturday’s doubles (if he plays) or in the fifth singles (if it goes that far) against Petzschner.
The Pick: Argentina
Davis Cup
Austria leads Russia, 2-0
Austrian hopes appeared to rest solely on Jurgen Melzer’s shoulders, but 127th-ranked Andreas Haider-Maurer spoiled Alex Bogomolov’s Russian Davis Cup debut with a four-set win, putting Austria one win away from its first World Group victory since 1995, when Thomas Muster led the team.
Veteran Russian captain Shamil Tarpischev has a well-earned reputation for changing starters with the frequency Marat Safin changed coaches. The fact that both Mikhail Youzhny and Nikolay Davydenko have winning records against Melzer makes me believe Tarpischev will start one of them in Sunday’s reverse singles if the Russians win doubles.
I don’t think Austria will allow that to happen. The Austrians have three players—Melzer, Alexander Peya and Oliver Marach—ranked in the Top 22 in doubles, and despite his draining five-set win that spanned four hours today, I can see Melzer pressed into duty in doubles and the host scoring a milestone victory.
The Pick: Austria
Davis Cup
Serbia leads Sweden, 2-0
Playing without two-time French Open finalist Robin Soderling, an overmatched Swedish squad needed Serbian starters Janko Tipsarevic and Viktor Troicki to tighten up under pressure to have any shot of an upset. The Serbs did not cooperate and could complete a sweep when Tipsarevic partners Nenad Zimonjic in doubles.
Seven months ago, Sweden’s Robert Lindstedt partnered Simon Aspelin to defeat Novak Djokovic and Zimonjic in doubles. This time around, Lindstedt is scheduled to partner 21-year-old Davis Cup rookie Johan Brunstrom in doubles. Unless the Swedish players can somehow channel Joachim Johansson’s devastating serve, they may well struggle to prevent a sweep.
The Pick: Serbia
Davis Cup
Spain leads Kazakhstan, 2-0
Beating Spain at home in Davis Cup is a task as tough as beating David Ferrer in a sprint with the Davis Cup trophy strapped to your back. Spain has won 20 straight home ties, and though the host is playing without the four members of its 2011 championship squad, it still boasts 11th-ranked Nicolas Almagro and former world No. 1 Juan Carlos Ferrero, who each scored singles wins today.
Kazakhstan is competing in its first World Group tie and figures to be fired up to prevent a shutout, but even if the visitors beat the Spanish doubles duo of Marc Lopez—Rafael Nadal’s friend and sometime doubles partner—and 27th-ranked Marcel Granollers, I can’t imagine Spain stumbling. Spain has not lost a home tie since Gustavo Kuerten scored all three wins to lead Brazil to a 3-2 triumph in 1999. New Spanish captain Alex Corretja was on that team and won’t witness a replay this weekend.
The Pick: Spain
Davis Cup
Japan and Croatia tied, 1-1
World No. 20 Kei Nishikori is the highest-ranked player in this tie and is fresh off his first Grand Slam quarterfinal in Melbourne. Before the matches began, I probably would have picked Japan, and when Go Soeda surprised Ivan Dodig to open, the host took a major step toward winning in its first World Group appearance in 26 years.
But tower of power Ivo Karlovic swept Nishikori to level the tie and is scheduled to play the crucial doubles match tomorrow. If it comes down to the fifth match, pitting the lethal-serving Karlovic against the 90th-ranked counter-puncher Soeda, I have to favor the Croat because he’s so hard to break. While Karlovic entered this tie with a hardly imposing 7-7 career Davis Cup record, he is much more dangerous indoors.
The Pick: Croatia
Paris, WTA (Semifinals):
Klara Zakopalova vs. Marion Bartoli; Angelique Kerber vs. Yanina Wickmayer
The young German generation continues to gain ground as Kerber, one of five Germans ranked in the Top 50, fought off eight of 11 break points to earn her first Top 5 win with an impressive 6-4, 6-4 sweep of top-seeded Maria Sharapova.
French second-seed Marion Bartoli, who was pushed to three sets by Italian spin doctor Robert Vinci, is the favorite to take the title, though she’s split four meetings with 51st-ranked Zakopalova, who is one win from her first final in two years.
Kerber will face Wickmayer in the semis. I’ll go with Kerber, who is contesting her third semifinal in four events.
The Pick: Kerber
Pattaya City, WTA (Semifinals):
Sorana Cirstea vs. Maria Kirilenko; Daniela Hantuchova vs. Hsieh Su-Wei
Cirstea started the season beating U.S. Open champ Samantha Stosur at the Australian Open and has swept semifinal opponent Kirilenko in both of their meetings. Cirstea is more explosive, but Kirilenko has a bit more variety in her game and tends to be a calmer competitor.
Defending champion Hantuchova scored her eighth consecutive win in Pattaya today and will be a strong favorite to beat qualifier Su-Wei to reach her second final of the season.
Hantuchova is the most accomplished player in the field, has not dropped a set in this event, and I see her winning her fifth career title this weekend.
The Pick: Hantuchova
Richard Pagliaro is a senior editor for TENNIS.com.