Every Friday, after the weekend's matches have been determined, we'll predict the winner of each tournament.
Indian Wells, ATP (Semifinals):
Novak Djokovic vs. John Isner
If Isner is landing his titanic first serve, this could be a combustible showdown pitting one of tennis' top servers (Isner is second to Milos Raonic in the ace race) against its best returner (Djokovic leads the ATP in winning 41 percent of his return games). Though this is a slower hard court, Isner could serve through a swamp, as evidenced by his Davis Cup victory over Roger Federer on red clay, and the fact that he pushed Djokovic to five sets in the 2010 Davis Cup on red clay in Belgrade.
But the Serb is a much more confident and complete player now, and I believe his superb skill in transitioning from defense to offense will be a key to the outcome. When Isner burst onto the scene with his run to the 2007 D.C. final as a wild card, I asked him to name his favorite player. "Karl Malone," the big man replied. In the spirit of March Madness and the Mailman, I'd love to pick Isner, who has surrendered serve just three times in four tournament wins, in the upset. But Djokovic delivers even when he's not playing his A game, his expansive reach should help him block back some timely returns, he's won 10 straight matches in the desert—and I see him prevailing here.
The Pick: Djokovic
Indian Wells, ATP (Semifinals):
Rafael Nadal vs. Roger Federer [Live Chat at 4 pm EST.]
Federer has won 37 of his last 39 matches, with the losses coming to Nadal (in Melbourne) and Isner (in last month's Davis Cup tie in Fribourg). The Swiss master has been moving beautifully during this streak, and his aggressive footwork was on display as he stepped inside the baseline in dismantling Juan Martin del Potro 6-3, 6-2 in the quarterfinals. Though Federer's volley was not always a finishing shot in that conquest, he used his slice backhand and drop shot effectively in exploting the big man's court positioning. Nadal, on the other hand, was two points from defeat in the quarters, but produced some ferocious forehands under pressure in ultimately deterring David Nalbandian.
Based on recent form, you have to favor Federer, who is aiming for his fourth Indian Wells title, but tennis is all about match-ups, and this one doesn't favor Fed. Nalbandian's two-handed backhand is one of the best in the sport, and Argentine handles the high ball to the backhand better than Federer, who has been handcuffed by Nadal's forehand (to his one-handed backhand) in the past. Nadal's tremendous topspin should be even more hellacious in the slower, daytime desert conditions. I'm not saying Federer can't combat that play this time around, I'm just not certain he can consistently do it over the course of the match.
Prior to the quarterfinals, Nadal had not dropped serve in the entire tournament. I've always felt Nadal plays with more aggression in singles when he plays doubles at the same event, and the 2010 Indian Wells doubles champ has looked sharp returning to the doubles final with partner Marc Lopez. I absolutely believe Federer can win this match, but I do think he'll have to serve around 65 percent, hit with depth and aggression, work the short court on occasion to keep Nadal's court positioning honest, and get off to a fast start to do so. (Federer has not beaten Nadal after losing the first set since the 2007 Hamburg final.)
Ultimately, I think Nadal's forehand to Federer's backhand has been an effective containment strategy, and the Spaniard is contesting his seventh straight semifinal at Indian Wells, showing how comfortable he is on this court. For those reasons, I favor Nadal.
The Pick: Nadal
Richard Pagliaro is a senior editor for TENNIS.com.