I know I said I’d be back Saturday with my French Open predictions, but, well, the weather was nice. Which means that, having TiVo’d my way through the first two days of the event—in which Dick Enberg gave art-history lessons on air and Guillermo Vilas kept a close eye on his long-haired lefty successor, Rafael Nadal—I can’t call this column a tournament preview anymore. How about an “informed preview?”
Either way, it won’t help me make any predictions for the next two weeks. Picking brackets at Slams, on the men’s side at least, is about as easy as trying to foresee how the NCAA basketball championships will play out—you know upsets are coming, but the ones that do come still never make any sense. Pre-tournament dark horses? Forget ’em. When was the last time one of those guys or girls came through for you? I don't recall Marcos Baghdatis being a popular sleeper choice to make the final of the Australian Open this year.
With that past futility in mind, I won’t venture into any bracketology this time around. Instead, I’ll talk a little about 10 people who could make an impact on the tournament—why they can go far, and why they can’t. Then I’ll tell you who’s going to win the whole thing. And you can take those picks to the bank.
Men
Roger Federer
Before we talk about any rivalries, let’s remember that Federer is trying to become the first man since Rod Laver himself to win four straight majors. It would be one of the great achievements in the sport’s history.
As for his first match on Sunday, against the schizophrenically named Diego Hartfield, I didn’t think The Testy Fed looked all that bad. He made a lot of errors, sure, and couldn’t shake the minor-leaguer for two whole sets, but he also hit plenty of nasty winners. Federer has said that he’s not concerned with his error count on clay, and he’s right. He’s not a grinder (he’s too good to hit the same shot over and over), so he should do what he does best—open up the court and use that unmatched transition game. Fed will be tested, perhaps by Nicolas Kiefer, or Tommy Robredo in the quarters. While he hasn’t lost a set to Robredo since 2002, it could be a different story this time. The Spaniard is underpowered, but he's gone deep in Paris before, and he’s coming off his first Masters Series win, in Hamburg.
Rafael Nadal
What is there left to say? He’s won 54 straight on clay, and he just got through his toughest potential match-up until the fourth round, where he might get Lleyton Hewitt (though the oft-injured Aussie seems ripe to be upset—which, of course, means he won’t be). Nadal rarely wins easily, and he had his shaky moments today against Robin Soderling. But if anyone benefits from the three-of-five format, it’s Rafa. Nobody else can concentrate as intensely as he does for that long. By the way, I noticed this last year and again Monday: Why are the French lukewarm toward Nadal? They went so far as to boo one of his net-cord winners today. Are his clothes too loud? Is his whole thing just a bit gauche?
Nicolas Almagro
What Nadal is to style, Almagro is to shotmaking—flamboyant to a fault. This Spaniard was a junior rival of Nadal’s, but he’s a late bloomer by comparison. I’ve been waiting for him to do big things since seeing him run Guillermo Coria off the court for a set in Hamburg in 2004, a time when Coria was dominant on clay. This spring, Almagro, a small kid with a cocky strut, has started to live up to that potential, using his monster forehand and one-handed backhand to win in Valencia and nearly beat Federer in Rome. Almagro’s downside: He still tries to create angles that aren’t there and hit winners from impossible positions. Just like his next opponent, James Blake. That match should offer some spectacular hitting. The winner could face Nadal in the quarters.
Gaston Gaudio
The 2004 champion looked solid in his first match, and he played the best set of the clay season before losing to Nadal in the semifinals in Monte Carlo. Gaudio still has a lethal combination of clay skills—heavy serve, effective forehand, all-world backhand, good hands at net, sliding know-how. His draw isn’t exactly soft—Davydenko, Moya, and Ferrero are in the vicinity—but there’s no one there he can’t beat, as long he avoids the mental vacations that he’s been known to take in the past.
David Ferrer
The Spanish workhorse had a slightly disappointing clay season, failing to reach any semifinals after doing so on the hard courts in Miami in March. But Ferrer remains a tough assignment. He made the quarters here last year, and his nuthin’-fancy topspin control game should serve him well again. His draw isn’t bad; the top seeds in his quarter are Ivan Ljubicic and Andy Roddick. But his opening round against a fellow Spaniard, the big-hitting Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, might be tricky.
The Women
Amelie Mauresmo
The pressure builds. Not only is Mauresmo the hometown favorite this time around, she’s the top seed and world No. 1 as well. Maybe her new status as a Grand Slam champion will help her relax, maybe not—it will be the question of the tournament. There’s no one too scary in her quarter, but there are a few accomplished players lurking nearby: Nicole Vaidisova, Jelena Jankovic, Patty Schnyder, and Venus Williams have the shotmaking skills to stay with the more finesse-oriented Mauresmo—and make her nervous again.
Kim Clijsters
The No. 2 seed and two-time finalist was her usual streaky self in her first match, nearly losing a set to the less-than-heralded Virginie Razzano. (Is it just me, or is Clijsters looking a little bored with tennis these days? She never seems to be too happy out there.) While clay is no longer her favorite surface, Clijsters won in Warsaw on dirt this spring and will always have as much speed, power, and athleticism as any other woman. Her section of the draw is a vast wasteland until the quarters, where she could meet the winner of Elena Dementieva and Martina Hingis. The key for Clijsters will be to survive the off-form match that will inevitably come in the second week.
Justine Henin-Hardenne
The defending champion may be only the No. 5 seed, but she has to be the favorite until she’s dethroned. When she’s healthy, Henin-Hardenne is still the best in the game on clay. She’s got as much explosiveness as Clijsters, and she’s better at focusing it than her countrywoman. And like Clijsters, the draw is kind to H-H until the quarters, where the potential match of the tournament awaits against No. 3 seed Nadia Petrova. Still, the Belgian’s health remains a mystery and an X-factor, and probably always will.
Nadia Petrova
As I said, fans await a quarterfinal between Petrova and Henin-Hardenne. Which shows just how far the Russian has come in the last few months. She’s won four tournaments this year and is on a 15-match winning streak. Her victory over Henin-Hardenne in Berlin a few weeks ago was probably the most impressive of her career. She showed more speed and hitting skills than I thought she owned. Even better, she was the one toughing out the important points. The only question is how she’ll handle the attention and pressure of being an unexpected favorite after spending years just outside the limelight. Another knock: Despite her Berlin performance, and the fact that her mom was a track star, Petrova is still not the mover that Clijsters, Henin-Hardenne, and Mauresmo are.
Martina Hingis
The wild card among the women is Hingis. She’s made steady progress up the rankings and won in Rome last week, but she didn't beat any of the top players along the way. And Venus Williams, no dirtball expert, has beaten her on clay this year. But if Hingis is going to win a major with her steady, smart, medium-pace, low-risk game, it’s going to be the French. She knows how to move on clay, and a win would give her a career Grand Slam. I see her out-steadying Dementieva in the fourth round, but Clijsters’ pace will make her a tough matchup in the quarters.
The Winners
Men: Rafael Nadal
Women: Kim Clijsters
Enjoy the week from Paris. I’ll be heading there Saturday and, provided I can find a European plug adapter and remember how to ask for a metro pass, I'll start writing on Sunday. My friend, and everyone’s favorite pot-stirrer, Peter Bodo, will join me. We’ve got the second week covered!