Paula Badosa vs. Naomi Osaka: Where to Watch, Rome Preview, Betting Odds

Badosa is just 27. She has recently returned to the Top 10 after a long battle against injury and lost confidence. Yet this week she has talked about how she might have to “retire young” because of a back problem. The ailment short-circuited her comeback just when it was gaining steam this spring, forcing the Spaniard out of her home-country event in Madrid two weeks ago.

But she’ll give it a go Thursday against Osaka, another player who knows something about layoffs and comebacks. Osaka has been ranked No. 1, and Badosa has been as high as No. 2, but they’ve never played. Once upon a time, we might have expected their first meeting to take place in a Grand Slam semi or final. Instead, it will happen first up at 11 A.M. on Rome’s Grandstand court.

The contest is, among other things, a sign of how quickly the fates of tennis players can change. Two months ago, Badosa’s comeback was going much better than Osaka’s; now Osaka is coming off a 125 title on clay, and Badosa is talking about hanging up her racquet.

Both women have excelled mostly on hard courts in the past, but Badosa, a Spaniard who hits with a little more spin and margin, is the more natural clay-courter. The result may come down to the state of Osaka’s mind and Badosa’s body. Osaka’s confidence can swing wildly, from total self-belief to total despair. The state of Badosa’s back, as well as the rust she may feel after a month away, will determine what she’s capable of. Clay court or not, Osaka does seem ready for an upswing. Winner: Osaka

Win Probability N. Osaka

62.1%

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Betting Odds

Osaka is a -200 moneyline favorite; Badosa is a +155 underdog.

(Odds from BetMGM as of 12:50 p.m ET on Wednesday, May 7)