Pick of the Day: Andrey Rublev vs. Daniil Medvedev, ATP Finals

This has been a one-sided rivalry over the years and it's unlikely that much will change when the two battle it out in Turin.

ByZachary Cohen

Published Nov 13, 2023

The Break: Previewing The 2023 ATP Finals

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On Monday, Nov. 13, Andrey Rublev will take on Daniil Medvedev in round-robin play at the Nitto ATP Finals.

This has been a head-to-head series that has been dominated by Medvedev, who is 7-2 in nine career meetings with one of his childhood friends. Rublev also hasn’t won a set off Medvedev in their last two meetings, with the world No. 3 winning in straight sets this year in Dubai and at the US Open.

Both of those victories also happened to come on hard courts, so Medvedev will feel good about his chances here. That’s why I’m playing Medvedev to cover a small game spread.

Rublev definitely has a game that can be dangerous on indoor hard courts, as he just has so much power from the baseline. His shots are likely going to be bouncing low, making it hard for Medvedev to dig in and play his signature brand of elite defense. But I still think that Medvedev will have an advantage here. The reality is that Rublev just isn’t anything special when it comes to serving, and Medvedev is one of the best returners in the sport. So, I’d be surprised if Medvedev doesn’t have quite a few chances of breaking here.

Medvedev and Rublev have played twice this year, including on a sweltering day at the US Open.

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On the flip side, I don’t think Rublev will do much damage on Medvedev’s serve. Medvedev has more pop on his serve than he is given credit for, and that will make it hard for Rublev to get it back in, in conditions that are favorable for the server.

It’s also just hard to ignore the way the match went when these two met at the US Open. Rublev jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the first set in that match, and it looked like he was on his way to giving Medvedev a run for his money. But Medvedev quickly raised his level and ended up taking the opening set, 6-4. Rublev was also up a break in the second and third sets, but he was never even able to force as much as a single tiebreaker. That had to have been demoralizing for Rublev, and it makes you wonder what type of mental edge Medvedev has over him.

Even when the world No. 3 is playing some of his worst tennis, he is still capable of flipping a switch and beating Rublev down.

Pick: Medvedev -2.5 Games (-120)

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