Pick of the Day: Hubert Hurkacz vs. Andrey Rublev, Shanghai

Both players have been tremendous throughout this week, but it's hard to back off the Pole at these favorable odds.

Published Oct 14, 2023

HIGHLIGHTS: H. Hurkacz def. S. Korda; Shanghai SF

Advertising

The final of the Rolex Shanghai Masters will feature Hubert Hurkacz taking on Andrey Rublev. Both players will be looking to win the second 1000-level event of their careers, so this is a massive match for both.

Each finalist has displayed fantastic tennis coming into this meeting, with Rublev having earned wins over Adrain Mannarino, Tommy Paul, Ugo Humbert and Grigor Dimitrov this week—and not dropping a single set in the process. Hurkacz’s road has been a bit easier, with his toughest victory coming against Sebastian Korda in Saturday's semifinals. But the Pole also beat guys like Thanasi Kokkinakis, Zhang Zhizhen and Fabian Marozsan, who can all be tricky opponents. Having said that, the Russian is a little more battle-tested than his opponent here. But I still like Hurkacz to prevail as a sizable underdog.

Finishing with the title would see Hurkacz climb back to No. 11 in Monday's new rankings.

Advertising

When Hurkacz is serving well, he’s one of the toughest players in the world to beat. The No. 16 seed wasn’t broken once in his meeting with Korda, and he came up with huge serves whenever the American was threatening to break him. That’s something that Hurkacz has done really nicely over the last couple of months. He has played big points extremely well and never seen seems to panic in big moments. Hurkacz knows that if he collects himself and takes a deep breath, he’s never truly in danger when the ball is on his racquet. When he’s hitting his spots, there is very little his opponents can do.

Of course, I should mention that Rublev is likely to have an edge when it comes to baseline play here. But Hurkacz is no slouch from back there, and he also moves better than most of the other big servers on tour. So, if Rublev isn’t at his absolute best here, it’s going to be hard for him pull away at any point in this match. And Rublev can get a little loose with his own serve, which could put him in a real bind here. The Russian is especially vulnerable when he's not making his first serve. And that’s ultimately why I believe this price is a little too favorable for Hurkacz.

Bet: Hurkacz To Win (+150)

Advertising