The winner of Monday’s first-round match between Qinwen Zheng and Katerina Siniakova has a real opportunity to do some damage at Wimbledon. Both of these players possess the ability to thrive on grass, but only Siniakova has proven she can do so. The Czech comes into this event after having won a title in Germany just two days before heading to London. And while that might mean she’ll be a bit fatigued for this match, I still think she’s a good bet to get the job done.
Don't overthink this: Siniakova has won five grass-court matches this season, while Zheng lost both of her matches on the surface in the lead-up to Wimbledon. Zheng has faced some tough competition in recent weeks, but she is just 1-4 in her last five matches. She can’t possibly be feeling all that confident right now. Siniakova also comes into this match with 20 WTA-level grass wins under her belt, while Zheng is just 2-5 on the surface in her career.
It’s also impossible to ignore the fact that Siniakova has a break percentage of 40.6% this year. It’s difficult to break opponents on grass, but she has been at 37.0% or higher in each of the last three years. That means she should see a few opportunities against Zheng in this match. Siniakova also has a career-high hold percentage in 2023, which is massive heading into this event. Her serve is only going to be more dangerous on grass.
Overall, I just see the Czech riding her momentum to a win, even against a tough first-round opponent.
Pick: Siniakova To Win (+100)