Pick of the Day: Marton Fucsovics vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime, Shanghai

The Canadian played well towards the end of the 2022 season, but the same can't be said for any stretch of this season.

Published Oct 06, 2023

MATCH POINT: F. Auger-Aliassime def. G. Monfils; Laver Cup Day 1

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This has been a trying season for Felix Auger-Aliassime. Towards the end of the 2022 season, the Canadian was a Top 10 player and made his debut at the Nitto ATP Finals. He was an impressive 60-27 in tour-level matches last year and he looked like he was going to be a force in 2023. That hasn't been the case, as FAA is just 14-18 this season in struggling both mentally and physically.

Auger-Aliassime is still the world No. 15, but he’s defending a considerable amount of points over the next few months. If he doesn’t his stride soon, that ranking will plummet. That’s a lot of pressure to manage and I’m not quite sure Auger-Aliassime will handle it. I’d potentially feel differently if the 23-year-old had some positive recent results to fall back on. He’s just 2-6 in his last eight matches, and one of those victories was a Laver Cup win over Gael Monfils. The Frenchman pretty openly said that he was treating that match like an exhibition.

Fucsovics has dropped his past two meetings to Auger-Aliassime after taking their first back in 2018.

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With all of that in mind, I like Marton Fucsovics to cover a small game spread against the No. 14 seed in Shanghai. I’m not sure it’s even fair to say that Auger-Aliassime is the better player between these two right now, but even if he is, the gap isn’t all that large.

Fucsovics in theory should be comfortable in his surroundings entering this matchup. He has the benefit of winning a match here Wednesday, earning a straight-set victory over Denis Yevseyev, 6-4, 6-2. Fucsovics has also gone 5-5 in his last 10 matches. That might not be anything to write home about against any other opponent, but facing a player as down on his luck as Auger-Aliassime, Fucsovics actually looks quite successful.

It’s also worth noting that these are two guys that can really handle their business when serving. So, there might not be a lot of breaks in this match. That makes it hard not to like the underdog, as Fucsovics can lose two tiebreakers and still cash this bet. That said, I’d be shocked if Fucsovics doesn’t win at least one set here. And doing so would put us in a great position with the 2.5 games.

Bet: Fucsovics +2.5 Games (-125)

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