Sebastian Korda is coming off an emotional win over Ben Shelton in the Rolex Shanghai Masters quarterfinals. The 23-year-old outlasted his compatriot in a 6-7 (10), 6-2, 7-6 (6) victory. There was some late drama in that one, with Korda nearly blowing a 6-1 lead in the third-set tiebreaker. But Korda was able to eventually close it out, and he'll now face Hubert Hurkacz with a spot in the final at stake. And while I’d like to say I think the American will prevail, this feels like one that should go Hurkacz’s way.
Korda beat Hurkacz in a tight five-setter when the two met at the Australian Open earlier this year. But Hurkacz took a little time to settle into the 2023 season. It wasn’t until his title run in Marseille that he really started playing his best tennis, and he has been better in the second portion of the hard-court season than before. Hurkacz went 14-7 on hard courts before switching over to clay in April, but he is 11-4 on the surface since returning to it for the Citi Open in D.C. Also, the conditions in Shanghai favor Hurkacz’s game a bit more, as the temperatures are a bit cooler and the courts are playing a little faster. That’s big for a player like Hurkacz, as his booming serve is hard to pick up on fast courts.