Pick of the Day: Sebastian Korda vs. Hubert Hurkacz, Shanghai

Sebastian Korda is coming off an emotional win over Ben Shelton in the Rolex Shanghai Masters quarterfinals. The 23-year-old outlasted his compatriot in a 6-7 (10), 6-2, 7-6 (6) victory. There was some late drama in that one, with Korda nearly blowing a 6-1 lead in the third-set tiebreaker. But Korda was able to eventually close it out, and he'll now face Hubert Hurkacz with a spot in the final at stake. And while I’d like to say I think the American will prevail, this feels like one that should go Hurkacz’s way.

Korda beat Hurkacz in a tight five-setter when the two met at the Australian Open earlier this year. But Hurkacz took a little time to settle into the 2023 season. It wasn’t until his title run in Marseille that he really started playing his best tennis, and he has been better in the second portion of the hard-court season than before. Hurkacz went 14-7 on hard courts before switching over to clay in April, but he is 11-4 on the surface since returning to it for the Citi Open in D.C. Also, the conditions in Shanghai favor Hurkacz’s game a bit more, as the temperatures are a bit cooler and the courts are playing a little faster. That’s big for a player like Hurkacz, as his booming serve is hard to pick up on fast courts.

Speaking of the serve, I think Hurkacz’s will be a little too much for Korda to overcome. The American was broken three times in his match against Shelton, which might not seem like all that much. But he won’t have the luxury of playing that many loose service games against Hurkacz, who has a hold percentage of 87.7% this season—incredibly, a bit down from last year’s 90.6%. Hurkacz has the third-highest hold percentage on the ATP Tour this season, and he wasn’t broken once in either the second or third set in his semi-final win over a red-hot Fabian Marozsan.

I think the Pole is going to win a lot of quick service games, and I also think he has the ability to work his way into a few of Korda’s. From there, the pressure not to fold might actually force Korda to do just that.

Overall, it isn’t hard to imagine a scenario in which Korda does find a way through here. But he would have to play a perfect match in order for that to happen, and I think Hurkacz’s normal level is a lot more trustworthy than Korda’s. Too much would have to break right for Korda to win this match, so I’m taking Hurkacz at what I believe is a great price.

Bet: Hurkacz To Win (-115)