If you haven’t already checked out my ATP Finals Betting Preview, I’d strongly suggest doing that before diving into the action on Sunday. I went a little into the first matchup in the event, which features Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Jannik Sinner. But I’ll go into it in more detail here, as taking Tsitsipas to win a set—and sprinkling a little on the moneyline—is my favorite bet of the day.

Sinner will be playing at home in this tournament, so he’ll have a little extra adrenaline with the crowd cheering him on. But that also means the youngster will be under a lot of pressure. I know Sinner has won two 1000-level events this year, and he has done a good job of shifting the narrative and showing the world he can win big matches. But he is still unproven in Grand Slams, and this is probably the closest thing to one. This event features the top players in the world, so every match he plays will be one in which he’ll need to dig deep and find something extra. I still question whether he has it in him to do that.


As for this specific matchup, I just don’t see much that separates Sinner and Tsitsipas. That makes it hard not to back Tsitsipas to win a single set, especially at a reasonable price. Before losing to Sinner in straight sets earlier this year, Tsitsipas was 5-1 in his previous six meetings with the Italian. His big serve and elite forehand have always given Sinner problems, especially with the youngster being prone to shaky service games. And I just don’t think anything is different regarding the matchup now.

Sinner is obviously in great form entering this event, as he won a title in Vienna just a few weeks ago. But Tsitsipas has also been figuring things out lately, as he’s 9-4 in his last 13 matches. Tsitsipas has also picked up wins over players like Felix Auger-Aliassime, Alexander Zverev and Karen Khachanov in recent weeks.

If this match was taking place at any point over the summer, I would have jumped at the opportunity to bet Sinner. However, a confident Tsitsipas is a dangerous Tsitsipas, so this price feels way off to me. At the very least, I expect Tsitsipas to force a deciding third set here. But I also think it’s worth putting a small play on Tsitipas to win at +195. He was my pick to be one of the two players to emerge from this group.

Pick: Tsitsipas +1.5 Sets (-150) & Tsitsipas ML (+195 – 0.5 units)