I had Adrian Mannarino to win a set against Andrey Rublev last round, but I quickly realized I was on the wrong side of that one. The Russian came out firing in that match, playing some of the best tennis I’ve ever seen him play. Rublev even apologized to Mannarino at the net after that one, telling the Frenchman that he “played unreal today.” Now, Rublev will face Tommy Paul for a spot in the quarterfinals of the Rolex Shanghai Masters. And I like the Russian to cover a small game spread against the American here.
Paul was on fire earlier in the the summer, as he played fantastic tennis in Cincinnati and Toronto. But Paul had lost five matches in a row before arriving in Shanghai, making it somewhat hard to trust him right now. He has obviously won two matches here, but I haven’t been overly impressed with his form. He isn’t playing with the same purpose from the baseline, and I think he’ll have a lot of trouble with Rublev’s ability to hit or power from both sides of the court.
Rublev also happens to be 4-1 in this head-to-head series, so he has had a lot of success against Paul in the past. I think the main reason for that is that Rublev has the power to hit through Paul’s speed along the baseline. Paul can also occasionally struggle with his serve, and Rublev will punish opponents that are doing that. He has always been a player with a good break percentage, and that’s no different in 2023.
The only thing I’m worried about with a match like this is that Rublev was so good against Mannarino that it almost feels like he’s due for a poor performance. But he could also just be playing with extreme confidence. And even if he plays his normal game, he should be able to cover this spread.
Bet: Rublev -2.5 Games (-140)