Many believe Dominic Stricker is going to beat Alexei Popyrin in their opening-round meeting in Wimbledon. Stricker is viewed as the superior grass-court player—which is fair considering Popryin is just 3-11 in ATP-level grass-court matches. But Popyrin is also in the middle of one of the better seasons of his career in 2023. So, I don’t exactly see the Australian going down without a fight.
I think the best play you can make in this one is backing the Over 42.5 game total. Popyrin has an 85.2% hold percentage in 2023, and he has always been a guy that has had serious pop with the ball on his racquet. His booming first serve is going to be even more difficult to handle on grass, and Stricker also happens to go big with his serve. With that in mind, it isn’t hard to envision this match featuring a few tiebreakers or 7-5 sets, which would be more than enough for this Over to hit. The reality here is that we probably just need Popyrin to win one set, as the games will pile up as these two go back and forth holding serve.
Popyrin hasn’t had the best grass-court season in the world, but he won a set in four of his six losses on the surface. He’s just not a player that is easy to keep off the board, with his ability to hit big serves and win quick points. That will work to our advantage as we simply hope this turns into a lengthy match between two players that pack a lot of punch.
Bet: Over 42.5 Games (-110)