Play of the Day: Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz, Wimbledon final

What Does Carlos Alcaraz Admire About Novak Djokovic? He's A Physical & Mental "Beast"

When Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic clashed in the semifinals at Roland Garros, the Spaniard was a -210 favorite. Just about a month later, Djokovic is now a -205 favorite to beat the 20-year-old in the Wimbledon final. And while Djokovic is undoubtedly one of the best grass-court players ever, that line doesn’t quite sit right with me. I just don’t see much that separates these two players, and I actually give a slight lean to Alcaraz when it comes to overall ability. If you want to take a little bit of that away because of Djokovic’s mental edge, I completely understand. But getting +168 odds on Alcaraz to win just feels like a gift. This match could legitimately go either way.

Djokovic’s best trait is his ability to make his opponents play extra balls, and he usually hits good shots in doing so. That got to Jannik Sinner in their semifinal match, as the Italian would hit shots that felt like winners and then would suddenly find himself needing to try and put Djokovic away. That ended up resulting in a lot of errors from Sinner, but I’m not sure you’ll get the same from Alcaraz. For starters, the Spaniard is just a little more precise than his next-generation peer, so I do think he’ll be able to hit through Djokovic in this match. But Alcaraz also has elite hands at the net, so he’ll come forward and put a lot of points away.

Alcaraz is also one of the best returners in the sport, which could be hard for Djokovic to deal with. The Serb has lost his focus quite a few times throughout this tournament, leaving his opponents with the opportunity to get out ahead of him. If he does that against Alcaraz, he will be broken somewhat regularly. The Spaniard just made easy work of flipping Daniil Medvedev’s service games in his favor, and the Russian has one of the bigger serves on tour.

Overall, I think this match will come down to how well Alcaraz serves. For most of his match against Holger Rune, Alcaraz’s serve looked excellent. The same can be said about his meeting with Medvedev, but he did break down a little in the final set. That type of thing can’t happen against Djokovic, but Alcaraz is well aware of that. He’s going to be completely dialed in and won’t take any of his service games for granted.

It's also hard to look at this match and not factor in how badly Alcaraz is going to want it. The Spaniard knows he had a great shot at beating Djokovic at Roland Garros, but his body got in the way of that and now people are acting like he’s nowhere near the Serbian’s level. That couldn’t be further from the truth, which is why I love the value on him to go out and win his second Grand Slam title.

Bet: Alcaraz ML (+168)