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by Pete Bodo
On the face of it, you might say that the U.S. team dodged a bullet when Rafael Nadal decided to bypass a trip to Austin, TX., recusing himself from the year-long Spanish effort to recover the Davis Cup trophy they've held at various times for just about half of the last decade. With Nadal out of the picture, the U.S. team immediately became the favorite. But just how heavy a favorite are the Americans?
On the basis of rankings, the answer must be "pretty heavy." The two U.S. singles players (Mardy Fish and Andy Roddick) are ranked No. 8 and 10, respectively. Moreover, both of them are expert at the hard court game. David Ferrer, Spain's top gun, is ranked No. 6, but at a distinct disadvantage on the Indoor Hard Premiere court laid down at in Austin's Frank Erwin center.
Let's face it, this Premiere brand is the mother of all hard courts, developed over years with input from the USTA (in the form of former, long-term captain Patrick McEnroe) as the surface most suited to the similar skill sets of the U.S. players, particularly the game of the squad's veteran leader, Roddick. The 5-4 edge the Americans hold in the career head-to-head team record is significant: the U.S. has a perfect record at home against the Spanish (4-0), and one of those wins (the quarterfinal in April of 2007) was on a similar hard court. Even with Nadal on board, Spain would be looking at a competitive tie; without him, it's the USA's tie to lose.
U.S. captain Jim Courier described the developing scenario in Austin perfectly when, tongue presumably very gently planted in his cheek, said: "Given Rafa's history of playing well on the grass, it's not surprising he's taken this decision. I think the fans will probably have more mixed emotions than we will."
The Spaniard with the best current form on fast courts is Lopez, the No. 2 singles player, who will open the tie against the American No. 1, Fish. Lopez is a lowly No. 31, and the question of the moment is, "Can Lopez provide the leadership the team will need in the absence of Nadal, especially because he's opening the tie?"
Lopez played well at Wimbledon. He upset Roddick, adding to an impressive spring-summer run that might have been even more successful had Lopez not run into Federer, Nadal or Djokovic quite so often. But that classic lefty serve of Lopez is not going to be quite as dangerous on the Premier court as it was on the slick grass of 'wimbledon. Addressing that issue in his pre-tie presser, Lopez said:
"Well, I think the grass is a unique surface. There's no comparison between the grass and any other surface in the tour. So this court is a little bit faster than normal. But still we can play from the baseline. It's a court that everybody can play, I think. But compared to the grass, it's totally different surface."
That bit about "a court that everbody can play?" Take it with a grain of salt—an attempt by Lopez to show a little much-needed bravado after the fiasco of a few months ago. You may remember that even before Nadal withdrew, the Spanish raised holy hail over the potential speed of the court, making wild accusations and complaints about the "legality" of Premier (the ITF has certain surface-speed rules that must be observed). But, as Courier noted at the team presser:
"We sat back and let things go as they went between the Spanish team and the ITF (during the controversy). Our job is to adhere to providing a court that fits the bill for the ITF. We've done that. We were never in doubt we were going to have a court that all players on both teams were comfortable with the surface, familiar with the surface."
I assume that Courier's tongue was planted in his cheek when he he uttered that last sentence as well.
We don't really know how the Spanish feel about the Premier court when they talk amongst themselves. What we do know is that, on record, Ferrer has struggled mightily on hard courts against quality players (in his last meeting with an American player on hard court, Ferrer lost to Fish in Miami, 7-5, 6-2)—all except, well, Roddick. And that's where things get tricky.
Ferrer owns a 4-3 career head-to-head advantage over Roddick, and U.S. fans will be disheartened to know that only one of those matches was on clay—six of those matches were on hard courts or indoor carpet. On the other hand, this is Davis Cup, and Roddick is literally playing at home (he's an Austin resident) on a court custom-made for his game. But given Ferrer's record against Roddick, and the pressure that all those advantages for Roddick brings to play, you can't take anything for granted.
In the past, Fish has been susceptible to Davis Cup pressure, but he emerged as a hero last fall in the tie in Colombia that kept the U.S. in the World Group. He could serve the team well by winning that first rubber against Lopez.
All in all, the tie could end up a lot closer than expected, given that it's being played on American turf in the home town of the U.S. team's go-to guy. Quite a few ties ago, the Bryans nicknamed Roddick "the closer." As the No. 2 player now, Roddick won't be in a position to play the closer in the fourth rubber (which is ordained to be the battle of the No. 1s, and how Roddick ended up with the nickname), but he may have to perform that role in a decisive fifth rubber against Lopez.
If it comes to that, I have a feeling Roddick will be ready.