Preview: Carlos Alcaraz meets rival Jannik Sinner in "really special" Monte Carlo final

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner

The ATP season started in January. Sincaraz season, which may have been even more hotly anticipated at the beginning of the year, finally gets underway on Sunday in Monte Carlo.

We’ve had to wait a surprisingly long time to see No. 1 play No. 2 in 2026. For the first two months, Alcaraz lived up to his top ranking by winning 16 straight matches and the Australian Open, while Sinner lost in a semifinal and a quarterfinal. In March, the tables turned. Sinner won 12 straight matches and the Indian Wells-Miami double, while Alcaraz failed to make the final at either event.

The delay has come with an upside.

After trading dominant early-season runs, Alcaraz and Sinner are close enough in the rankings that their first face-to-face meeting will determine the No. 1 spot. There’s even a cherry on top, rivalry-wise: Each has been in No. 1 for a total of 66 weeks; they’ll break the tie on Sunday.

“I think it’s the dream spot for everyone,” says Alcaraz, who is the defending champion. “I’m fighting for a second Monte Carlo title, he’s fighting for his first one.”

“It’s going to be a really special one. The No. 1 is on the line.”

So who has the edge?

As Alcaraz said, he has already won in Monte Carlo, while Sinner will be playing his first final in his adopted hometown. More broadly, Alcaraz  has won 10 titles on clay, while Sinner has won just one, four years ago at a 250 in Umag. Alcaraz is also 10-6 against Sinner overall, 6-1 in finals, and 3-1 on dirt. Sinner’s lone win came in that Umag final in 2022.

Not surprisingly, Sinner sounded like an underdog after his 6-1, 6-4 semifinal win over Alexander Zverev on Saturday.

“We came here trying to give myself some feedback [on clay], and now finding myself in the final means a lot to me,” he said. “I have nothing to lose.”

The surface and the head-to-head both favor Alcaraz, but their current form says this final could go either way. Each dropped a set in the round of 16, but each has looked better since. Sinner was particularly sharp against Zverev. He broke in the opening game and spent the next 80 minutes running the German corner to corner, and cracking 22 winners past him on the slow surface. Sinner hit just one ace, and made just 59 percent of his first serves, but he still won 20 of 23 first-serve points and didn’t face a break point.

“I’m very happy about today’s performance,” Sinner said. “I felt really solid from the beginning. When you’re a break up straightaway, it changes the dynamic of the match.”

It’s going to be a really special one. Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz’s stat line wasn’t quite as clean as Sinner’s, and he threw in a bad game to be broken. But he was also facing a tough, nervy test from Valentin Vacherot, a Monaco native who was playing with a lot of emotion, and a raucous band of supporters. When Vacherot made a push in the second set, Alcaraz responded with a brilliant game at 4-4 to break, and a winning drop shot to close it out.

“He’s playing great tennis with a lot of confidence right now, playing in his hometown,” Alcaraz said of Vacherot. “It was really tough to get the win.”

Along with the battle for No. 1, this match should feature the full arsenal of both men. Clay will give each of them a chance to play with touch, to use the whole court, to change spins and heights, and to show off their sliding defense. Normally, that would mean advantage Alcaraz; he’s faster, he’s less serve-dependent, and he has the deadlier drop shot. But Sinner has deployed his own drop to good effect so far this week, and hasn’t had much trouble transplanting his aggressive baseline attack from hard courts to clay.

If Sinner can find a level close to what he showed against Zverev, he has a chance. But Alcaraz has a history of seeing Sinner’s level, and finding one that’s just a little bit higher.

Winner: Alcaraz