Preview & pick: Can Alexander Zverev finally stop Jannik Sinner in Madrid final?

Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Zverev

Is Zverev an opponent for Sinner, or is he a good luck charm?

Since the summer of 2024, the Italian and the German have played eight times. Not only has Sinner won all of those matches, he has gone on to win all of those tournaments. That includes the last four Masters 1000 events, in Paris, Indian Wells, Miami, and Monte Carlo. On Sunday they’ll meet in the final of a fifth.

It’s safe to say that Zverev knows who and what he’s up against.

“I think right now he’s definitely the best player in the world,” he says of Sinner. “I think I have to play very, very good tennis to have a chance.”

Is there any reason, after all of those defeats, to think that anything will be different for him this time?

We can start by saying that Zverev likes Madrid. He has won the title here twice, and made the final another time. The mix of clay courts and fast altitude conditions suits his own mix of big serving and baseline grind. We can also say that, after a subdued 2025, he’s back to his steady self, and is 26-7 on the year. He has lost two sets in five matches in Madrid.

I think right now he’s definitely the best player in the world. I think I have to play very, very good tennis to have a chance. Alexander Zverev

What he hasn’t done is beat Sinner. The Italian has Zverev’s number because he has an extra gear from the baseline. He can match his service power and ground-stroke consistency, but he can also up the pace from the back of the court, and, more recently, use his newfound finesse.

Zverev has tried to change that dynamic by taking more risks from the baseline, and he has had sporadic success with it. He pushed Sinner to 7-5 in the third in the Vienna final last fall, and to a second-set tiebreaker in Miami this spring. Other times the results have been more routine. Sinner won 6-2, 6-4 in Indian Wells, and 6-1, 6-4 on clay in Monte Carlo last month.

In the latter match, Sinner started with an immediate service break and never looked back. That’s something Zverev will obviously want to guard against on Sunday. Ideally, the German, with little to lose against Sinner at this point, would try to use the faster conditions in the Caja Magica by swinging big and taking the initiative him.

Unfortunately, that’s not Zverev’s game. It’s Sinner. The world No. 1 is on a 22-match win streak, and doesn’t show any signs of slowing his long-running roll before he reaches his ultimate goal at Roland Garros. Winner: Sinner