Preview & Pick: Mirra Andreeva or Marta Kostyuk to win the Mutua Madrid Open title?

Mirra Andreeva vs. Marta Kostyuk

Did it feel as if Andreeva was 18 years old forever? Or at least for much longer than 12 months? Well, those days are finally over—she turned 19 earlier this week.

Apparently, the milestone brought up mixed emotions in the Russian.

“I’m very excited for tomorrow,” she said the day before her birthday, “but at the same time I caught myself being a little bit sad. Because I don’t want to be old, and I don’t want to grow up. I want to just stay 18 and be a kid all the time.”

Anyone who starts her pro career at 15, the way Andreeva did, is bound to seem like a veteran at an early age. Just ask her opponent on Saturday. Kostyuk joined the tour at 13, and won two rounds at the Australian Open at 15.

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Of the two prodigies, Andreeva began to fulfill her potential much more quickly. At 16, she made the semifinals at Roland Garros. At 17, she won back-to-back WTA 1000s and reached No. 5 in the rankings. Kostyuk, now 23, has a career-high ranking of 16 after 10 years on tour.

Since the clay season started, though, the Russian and the Ukrainian have been surging at the same time.

Each began the swing by winning a 250 title on dirt—Andreeva in Linz, Kostyuk in Rouen. Andreeva went on to beat Iga Swiatek and make the Stuttgart semis, while Kostyuk upset No. 5 Jessica Pegula in Madrid and has now won 10 matches in a row.

Kostyuk credits her recent success to long-term therapy, aimed at trying to make her less volatile on court. You can see the improvement in her reactions during matches.

“I’ve always wanted to change my overall perspective on tennis,” she said this week. “Because for me it was always very, very emotional, and I would spend just a lot of energy, and everything would matter so much to me. Whether it was wins or losses, it was, you know, very just difficult to live in this constant emotional bombing from the inside.”

Andreeva, who has had her own well-publicized bouts of volatility, echoed Kostyuk’s emphasis on trying to stay even keel through the ups and downs in her matches.

“I was not reacting a lot on the points, or on the games that I was winning,” she said after beating Hailey Baptiste in the semifinals. “I felt like that was helping me to stay calmer, and also kind of saving the energy a little bit…I was just trying to think to not react at anything that was happening.”

Who can stay calmer, and play better, in her first 1000 final of 2026?

Andreeva and Kostyuk have met once, at the start of the year in Brisbane, and Kostyuk won 7-6 (7), 6-3. That result aside, Andreeva is the favorite here. She’s ranked 15 spots higher—No. 8 to 23. She has had better career results on clay, and is seen as a future Roland Garros champion.

I’ve always wanted to change my overall perspective on tennis. Because for me it was always very, very emotional. Marta Kostyuk

As far as their games go, Andreeva plays with a superior balance of pace and spin, aggression and margin. Kostyuk likes to smack the ball at maximum pace as often as she can. When it comes to movement, though, Kostyuk has an advantage; she’s one of tour’s best athletes.

Both women have shown mental resilience in Madrid. Kostyuk came back from an early deficit to beat Linda Noskova in the quarters, and shrugged off a 6-1 second-set rout by Anastasia Potapova in the semis. Andreeva edged Anna Bondar in a third-set tiebreaker, and Baptiste in a 10-8 second-set tiebreaker.

Andreeva is the favorite, as I said, but Kostyuk seems to be in a good place mentally in Madrid. She hasn’t let her bad stretches doom her, the way she might have in the past. I’ll take her for the upset. Winner: Kostyuk