Preview: Sabalenka and Riske come full circle in Wuhan final

Aryna Sabalenka and Alison Riske have come full circle. The last time the Belarusian and the American met, it was in the final of the season’s first tournament, in Shenzhen, China, in early January. Now, 35 weeks later, with the season winding down, they’re set to meet in another final in China, this time in Wuhan, on Saturday.

When Sabalenka, then 20, beat Riske in three sets to kick off the year, the sky seemed to be the limit for her. She was coming off a meteoric 2018, in which she used a futuristic power game to leap from near-obscurity straight to the brink of the Top 10. At 6’0, with long limbs and a natural athlete’s ability to coordinate them, Sabalenka’s style of play looked state of the art. She hit without fear, but with precision—always a promising combination. When the Australian Open started, she was the consensus dark-horse pick to win the whole thing.

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Then, the opposite happened. Instead of passing her elders by and winning her first major title, Sabalenka was passed by an even younger player. Amanda Anisimova, 17, hit her off the court in the third round in Melbourne, and did it to her again in the second round at the French Open. The first of those defeats seemed to stop Sabalenka’s momentum and confidence cold. While she has kept her ranking from plummeting—she’s currently No. 14—she hasn’t won a tournament since Shenzhen, and she failed to get out of the third round at any of the Grand Slams.

“It was a really tough season for me,” Sabalenka admitted in Wuhan.

It’s always nice to come home, though, or at least to a home away from home. And that’s how Wuhan’s center court must be starting to feel for Sabalenka. She won the Premier event in 2018, and she has found her game again there this week. Maybe it’s the speedy surface. Maybe it’s the martial-arts photo of her that has gone viral. Or maybe her game is just too strong to be kept down forever. Whatever the reason, the 21-year-old Sabalenka has looked like her 20-year-old self in straight-setting two Top 10 opponents, Kiki Bertens and Ash Barty, on her way to the final.

“I think it means a lot for me,” Sabalenka said after being Barty, who was hampered by a calf injury, 7-5, 6-4. “It feels even better than last year. Last year was the first Premier final, Premier title. To get back on that level, it feels much more enjoyable.”

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What changed? Sabalenka was efficient against Barty, converting three of four break points, and saving four of five against her. She found big serves when she needed them, and built the rallies intelligently, gradually upping her pace with each shot rather than going for broke right away. She also had some timely help from Barty, who had a frustrating afternoon all around.

“I was going for shots. I was trying to play with the discipline,” Sabalenka said. “It wasn’t like a great level, that game for me. But somehow, doesn’t matter how, I was trying to go there to put the balls in.”

In other words, Sabalenka is finding ways to win again. Can she do it one more time, over Riske in the final? While the American is still ranked 21 spots below Sabalenka at No. 35, she has probably had the more satisfying season. At 29, Riske has played the best, most consistent, most thoughtful, most interesting tennis of her career. She won a title on her favorite surface, grass, and reached her first quarterfinal at Wimbledon, where she beat Barty and pushed Serena Williams to a third set. In 2019, Riske has recorded four Top 10 wins; the latest came in her 7-5, 7-5 victory over Petra Kvitova in the Wuhan semifinals.

“I think I’m doing what I do well, well,” Riske said. “That’s just being there in every point. I think returning well. I think this week in particular I’ve been serving well. It’s a tough combination when I’m doing those things.”

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Where Sabalenka takes the initiative as soon as she can, Riske lets the rallies, and the match, come to her, and then figures out a way to break her opponents down—she wins with two- and three-punch combinations, rather than with knockout blows. Riske returns with depth, she can counterpunch with her backhand down the line, she can use her forehand to transition forward, and she likes to play the net. Her natural attraction to grass, and her naturally flat shots, have served her well in Wuhan. Most of all, Riske has competed stubbornly well. She won the first set over Kvitova with a late break, and she won the last four games of the second set. When the match tightens, Riske tightens the ship.

“I had a feeling I was going to get the break back,” said Riske, who is into her sixth final on Chinese soil. “…I felt like I kept putting myself in the position to break and put pressure on her.”

What can we expect when Sabalenka and Riske meet again? An intriguing and perhaps slowly unfolding encounter, with multiple momentum changes. Their two previous meetings have gone three sets, and Sabalenka has won both of them. But Riske’s semifinal performance may make her a slight favorite this time. Finding her way past one big hitter should give her confidence that she can do the same in the final.

Winner: Riske