The editors of TENNIS.com preview Wednesday's French Open quarterfinals—and offer their picks.
(4) Andy Murray vs. (6) David Ferrer
—Head-to-Head: Murray leads 5-4
What Murray must to do win: The Scot enjoys grinding away along the baseline, but that won’t get him far against Ferrer, who has won all three of their clay-court meetings. One distinct advantage Murray owns is the return of serve—he used it as a weapon against Richard Gasquet, and must in this match. Murray should reach into his back of tennis tricks and mix up his shots to keep Ferrer guessing.
What Ferrer must to do win: Turn this quarterfinal into the war of attrition he craves. Murray can be stubborn, and if Ferrer can establish a rhythm of long and physical points, he’ll win the majority of them in the end. Unlike many top-ranked players, Murray doesn’t own a fearful forehand, so Ferrer should look to target that side and capitalize on any short returns.
The Pick: Ferrer in five sets. Their history suggests this result, and so does recent form: Ferrer hasn’t dropped a set through four rounds, while Murray has labored to this stage despite a troublesome back. Playing Ferrer under such conditions isn’t exactly elixir.
(2) Rafael Nadal vs. (12) Nicolas Almagro
—Head-to-Head: Nadal leads 7-0
What Almagro needs to do to win: Everything—and about as well as he can do it. Like Robin Soderling, the only player to beat Nadal at the French Open, Almagro is a shot-maker who can rack up winners. He’ll need as many as possible to earn his first win over his compatriot. Almagro must also must make a high percentage of first serves and strike his one-handed backhand down the line to make Nadal hit his backhand on the run.
What Nadal must to do win: Movement is a major advantage for Nadal in this match-up, so if he can engage his slower opponent in running rallies, he should be able to coax some low-percentage shots. Almagro is third in the ATP ace race, so Nadal’s returning must be reliable. If the six-time champion can get out of the blocks quickly, he can drain Almagro's self-belief, given their one-sided past history.
The Pick: Nadal in three sets. Giving Almagro even a set is risky. Like all their previous encounters, this match is in Nadal's hands. If he maintains the depth of his serve and groundstrokes, he should continue his mastery of Almagro and continue his quest for a record seventh French Open title.
(2) Maria Sharapova vs. (23) Kaia Kanepi
—Head-to-Head: Never played
What Kanepi needs to do to win: Take the first strike in rallies, trust her penetrating shots, and try to relax and play stress-free tennis. The Estonian has the explosive power to hit almost anyone off the court, but has been prone to choking and blowing leads when she nears the finish line. She squandered a 6-1, 5-1 lead against Caroline Wozniacki before regaining her nerve to complete a three-set win.
What Sharapova needs to do to win: Manage her sometimes sporadic serve and channel her power with patience. Sharapova dumped 12 double faults in her fourth-round win over Klara Zakopalova and cannot afford a similar serving snafu against Kanepi. The second seed will get the pace she craves from Kanepi, and must play deep, cross-court drives to set up her down-the-line strikes.
The Pick: Sharapova in three sets. The pressure will be on Sharapova in this first meeting between the pair. Kanepi is a dangerous and powerful player who is contesting her fourth major quarterfinal, but has been slowed by nerves in major matches before. Sharapova is the more experienced and accomplished player. If she takes care of her serve, she should get through.
(4) Petra Kvitova vs. Yaroslava Shvedova
—Head-to-Head: Never played
What Shvedova must do to win: Play how she played against Li Na, last year’s champion. And not just by exhibiting the physical shot-making that earned her a shutout third-set win, but the mental focus she had throughout that match. Shvedova believed she could win from the beginning, and didn’t fold once she lost the first set. A Kvitova surge is inevitable; Shvedova must withstand it and move on.
What Kvitova must do to win: This is only the second time Shvedova has been past the third round of a Slam, so Kvitova would do well to make this quarterfinal feel like an overwhelming experience. A hot start could go a long way in planting a seed of acceptance in Shvedova’s mind. On the court, Kvitova is unquestionably the harder hitter—if she’s consistent, it would force Shvedova to be near flawless.
The Pick: Kvitova in two sets. Kvitova hasn’t been a reliable weekend presence on tour, but she steps up at the big events. The 2011 Wimbledon champion, Fed Cup titlist, and 2012 Australian Open semifinalist is undoubtedly aware that if Li can lose to Shvedova, so can she. The Czech won’t be caught off guard, and her commanding fourth-round should have her in the groove she desires.