* !103647198 by Pete Bodo*
New York—The USTA conducted the U.S. Open draw this morning, sans Novak Djokovic. He was supposed to join Kim Clijsters (right) as a player representative, but was last heard from while lost on the Sheridan Parkway or the Cross Bronx Expressway en route to the ceremony.
I know the highway system in the New York boroughs, and trust me, if you're from Serbia, you don't want to have to find your way around out this way. Even if you're from Connecticut, you don't. And the tournament gave Djokovic a courtesy car of his own to use during the event. Like giving a toddler a loaded gun. Good luck, Novak, you could make Pittsburgh by nightfall.
Anyway Clijsters was obliged to pinch-hit as the celebrity name-puller for both men and women. So let's get right to the nub of it, then I'll get out of your road so you can populate the comment section.
Men's Singles:
Top quarter: No. 1 seeded Rafael Nadal's quarter could be described as the killing fields for Spanish players, given that it also includes Rafa's Spanish brethren Feliciano Lopez, David Ferrer, Daniel Gimeno-Traver, Pere Riba and Fernando Verdasco (seeded eight). A bunch of Spaniards are going to get blown to pieces, often by their countrymen. What is it, some kind of "Stop Spain!" conspiracy? The quarter also includes Ernests Gulbis and David Nalbandian.
The most dangerous of the those players (Verdasco, Nalbandian, Gulbis, Ferrer) are in the bottom half, and will battle it out for the privilege of playing Nadal in the quarters. The main obstacle in the top-seed's path to the quarters is Ivan Ljubicic (seeded 15)
Let the great "cupcake draw" debate begin!
Second quarter: In his half of the quarter, No. 4 seed Andy Murray may have to contend with Stanislas Wawrinka, whose game has fallen off in the last year, and a dangerous favorite son at the U.S. Open, Sam Querrey. But the guy must likely to distress him, IMO, is No. 14 seed Nico Almagro.
The bottom half of the quarter has some fast-court stud ponies: Long John Isner (although he may pull out of the tournament with a bad ankle before Monday's start), Tomas Berdych (No. 7), unseeded Michael Llodra, Radek Stepanek and Mikhail Youzhny (No. 12) among them. I think Murray likes it just fine where he is, all things given.
Third quarter: Nikolay Davydenko is a very soft No. 6 seed, which is good news for Andy Roddick (No. 9) despite the loss Davydenko inflicted in Roddick in Miami a few years back. Gael Monfils is in the top half of the quarter as well, along with a guy who could do much better than his No. 26 seeding indicates, Brazil's Thomaz Bellucci.
The bottom of that quarter appears to belong to Djokovic, seeded third (if he ever finds his way off the Major Deegan Expressway), but Marcos Baghdatis and Mardy Fish, two players who have been on fire this summer, are on track to battle it out for the right to challenge Djokovic. James Blake is in the bottom of this quarter, via a wild card, and with any luck he'll get past Kristof Vliegen and face either a qualifier or No. 30 seed Juan Monaco. Does Blake have another run left in him? He's set up for one if he's up to it.
Bottom quarter: This is Roger Federer-land, and the No. 2 seed's most powerful challenger would appear to be No. 5 seed Robin Soderling. That's pretty powerful. But I kind of like that Rafa gets Berdych to contend with in his half, while Federer gets Soderling—albeit one round earlier (in the quarters).
!103638475 Soderling is in the top half of this quarter, along with recuperating but rusty Fernando Gonzalez (No. 27). Beyond that, there's Marin Cilic, a surprisingly uninspired performer in majors this year. But Soderling might have to watch out for Taylor Dent, who hasn't quite matched his goals after returning from back surgery, but is capable of inspired play—especially in his native major. They could meet in the second round.
In the bottom half, Federer is looking at two former U.S. Open championship match contenders and world No. 1s in his path: Lleyton Hewitt and Juan Carlos Ferrero, along with the next highest seed after him, No. 13 Jurgen Melzer. Why do I think The Mighty Fed doesn't have a whole hail of a lot to worry about? Neither Hewitt nor Ferrero is as dangerous as he once was; in fact, Federer is nothing less than an albatross around Hewitt's neck. Can a Paul-Henri Mathieu or Dmitry Tursunov upset the applecart? My gut reaction is, Naw. . .
So let the great "cupcake draw II" debate begin.
On the whole, I'd say we're about as nicely set up for a Federer vs. Nadal final as anyone could hope.
Women's singles:
I'm just going to look at the two halves here, because I'm pressed for time (We're podcasting tonight from the Taste of Tennis event at the W Hotel in Manhattan). Besides, with Serena Williams out of action, what would ordinarily deserve a pamphlet of a preview suddenly could get the full War and Peace treatment and still not mean anything.
The field, IMO, is that wide open.
Top: Forgive me if i fail to give credit where credit is due, and I'm willing to eat crow on this one if Caroline Wozniacki wins the tourament. But she looks to me like a most vulnerable top seed—even more vulnerable than was Dinara Safina last year. It once seemed an accident of history that the top seed at a major was a woman who had yet to win her first major, now it seems almost a requirement for the position. That's the WTA tour for you these days, and that's not necessarily a complaint.
In any event, Wozniacki has crashed and burned—and badly—early in the second week in the first three Grand Slam events this year. That could happen again, because the draw hasn't been especially kind to her: she's targeted to play resurgent Maria Sharapova in the fourth round, although Aravane Rezai could trip up 'Pova one round earlier.
Li Na (No. 8) is likely to be a tough quarterfinal for Wozniacki, and former champion Svetlana Kuznetsova has been showing signs of life again, too. Also in this half: Yanina Wickmayer, Vera Zvonareva (No. 7) and Jelena Jankovic. If you can make heads or tails of it as a handicapper, be my guest.
Bottom: Venus Williams (No. 3) is in pretty good shape. On form, she would play Francesca "I don't care about nothin' since I won Roland Garros!" Schiavone (No. 6) in the quarters, and who wouldn't jump all over that? But Victoria Azarenka (No. 10) is in that quarter as well, as is Flavia Pennetta. They might complicate things.
In the bottom quarter, Kim Clijsters (No. 2) could meet Slammin' Sammy Stosur (No. 5) in the quarters, but Stosur is coming off injury and hasn't played much this summer. It's just as likely that Clijsters stiffest test will come in her (lower) half of the quarter, which also features a former No. 1 emerging from a terrible slump (Ana Ivanovic, unseeded), and unpredictable but volatile Marion Bartoli (No. 13).
Elena Dementieva is also in Clijsters' way, if not until the quarters. And while Dementieva has struggled lately, you have to like her (or Azarenka) as a finalist should Clijsters or Venus Williams falter. The absence of Serena Williams is bound to embloden that entire class of Top 10 players who have yet to win a major. It takes a brave soul to make a call in the WTA draw this year.
Anything can happen, and probably will. . .