Rafael Nadal to fall out of Top 10 for first time since 2005 on March 20th after Indian Wells

With Taylor Fritz’s run to the semifinals in Acapuco this week, it’s official—Rafael Nadal will fall outside the Top 10 after Indian Wells on March 20th, ending the longest Top 10 streak in ATP rankings history.

Nadal, who suffered a leg injury at the Australian Open and has been out of action since, withdrew from Indian Wells earlier this week, meaning he won’t defend the 600 ranking points he earned for reaching the final last year, where he finished runner-up to Fritz.

That withdrawal didn’t seal his fate, but Fritz’s quarterfinal victory over Frances Tiafoe in Acapulco on Thursday night did—by reaching the semifinals of the ATP 500 event, Fritz guaranteed that he’ll be at least the 10th player who will have more ranking points than Nadal following Indian Wells, even though Fritz himself is defending 1,000 points at the Masters 1000 event for winning the title last year.

The other nine men guaranteed to have more are Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Casper Ruud, Andrey Rublev, Daniil Medvedev, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Holger Rune and Hubert Hurkacz.

Nadal will thus drop to at least No. 11 on March 20th, and potentially further depending on other players’ results at Indian Wells.

And so, the longest Top 10 streak in ATP rankings history will end on March 20th, as the 22-time Grand Slam champion wraps up his 912th consecutive week in the elite (that total doesn’t include the 22 weeks the ATP rankings were frozen in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic).

MOST CONSECUTIVE WEEKS IN TOP 10 IN ATP RANKINGS HISTORY:
912: Rafael Nadal [2005-2023]
789: Jimmy Connors [1973-1988]
742: Roger Federer [2002-2016]
619: Ivan Lendl [1980-1992]
565: Pete Sampras [1990-2001]

Only one woman has spent more consecutive weeks in the Top 10 of the WTA rankings than Nadal has in the Top 10 of the ATP rankings—Martina Navratilova with exactly 1,000 straight weeks.

Nadal’s absence from the Top 10 could be short, though—after Indian Wells, he isn’t dropping any points until May, and even then, he’s only defending a total of 270 points before Roland Garros (180 for reaching the quarterfinals of Madrid and 90 for reaching the third round of Rome). He’s currently expected to return to action during the clay-court season, should he recover from his injury in time.