PARIS—The men’s version of this year’s French Open feels like a peak moment, a summit, one that we’ve been building to for a long time. The Old Masters, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, have taken their hits but they’re still surviving; if their quarterfinal wins are any evidence, they’re as strong as ever. Now they’ve been joined by the other two top-tier contenders of recent years, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray, in a blockbuster set of semifinals.
All of these guys are rivals, and all of them have beaten and lost to each other on numerous occasions. There’s a sense of history in the making as well. Will the old guard reassert itself and extend their run of dominance, or will this mark a turning point, toward Djokovic and possibly Murray? An entire clay-court season has pointed to this weekend. Let’s see what we might get when it finally arrives.
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Rafael Nadal vs. Andy Murray
Head to head: Nadal leads 10-4
He’s also 3-0 on clay. But Murray can play with him on the surface. He took a set this spring in Monte Carlo and gave Nadal a scare on the same court two years ago. Nadal leads their head-to-head at the majors, 3-2; Nadal won their last Slam meeting, in straight sets at Wimbledon last year.
Matchup
Nadal said yesterday that Murray’s game and talent were difficult to compare to other players’. In other words, he’s tricky to play. Nadal can’t simply focus on attacking or defending, because Murray is a counterpuncher who gives him a lot of different looks and speeds and spins, rather than doing one thing all the time. Nadal can’t straight go at the backhand, either with his serve or his ground strokes, because that’s Murray’s best shot, but he also has to watch out for the a sudden sting from the Scot’s running forehand. And when he does attack, he has to expect the ball to come back from the speedy Murray.
It’s a balancing act for Murray as well. If he rallies with Nadal, he could get worn down, as he did in Monte Carlo (he also hurt his elbow). In that match, Murray, who had time to create his shots, had success controlling points with his forehand. You can expect a lot of long rallies that use a variety of shots and require a ton of court coverage both side to side and up and back.
Intangibles
Let’s start with a tangible: Murray’s ankle, which hampered him in his match against Viktor Troicki but not as much against Juan Ignacio Chela. Will he be worried about rolling it again, which could jeopardize his Wimbledon? Will it begin to affect hm as the match goes on, as it is destined to do?
Mentally, Murray seems eager for this one. He’s happy with his French result so far, and should approach this match with little to lose, at least at the outset. I would expect him to take his chances early. As for Nadal, it’s hard to say where he is mentally. He’s No. 1, he’s the five-time champ here, but he’s no longer the undisputed master of clay. Will it shake his confidence or help him relax? Will the possibility of a Borg-tying 6th French title begin to seem like a reality, and will that affect him one way or another? He was his old self in the last round against Robin Soderling, but in the U.S. Open semifinals three years ago against Murray, he played a strangely passive match, as if he expected to lose. I don’t see that happening here, but there is something about the Murray match-up that throws Nadal a little.
Still, this is clay, this is Paris, this is Rafa.
Winner: Nadal
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Novak Djokovic vs. Roger Federer
Head to head: Federer leads 13-9
On clay, Federer also leads 2-1; Djokovic won their last match on the surface, in three sets, in Rome, two years ago. At Grand Slams, Federer leads 4-3; Djokovic has won their last two meetings at majors, at the U.S. Open in 2010 and the Australian Open this year. They’ve split their last six matches overall, with Federer winning the last three of 2010, and Djokovic winning all three so far in 2011. They’ve played each other a lot—eight times since Toronto last summer alone.
Matchup
From a playing standpoint, these two typically go toe-toe in rallies. Their speed and ball-striking skills are a pretty close match for each other. Where Federer used to be able to get the better of the rallies eventually and take control of points, in 2011 it’s been Djokovic who has thrived on the pace that Federer has given him. His improved serve has been a big factor in this change—now he gets free points with it. Djokovic has been more consistent with his backhand than Federer, and his forehand has been the bigger weapon.
What success Federer has had has come when he’s gone away from pure power and mixed it up, when he’s thrown in slices and loops. But it hasn’t worked that well. Djokovic has been playing at such a high level against all types of games that Federer has been forced to both mix in off-pace stuff and then go for broke—that's a tough balance to maintain.
None of those matches have been on clay, but Djokovic should also feel confident on this surface, having just won three tournaments on it, including two finals over Nadal. His two-handed backhand makes him the steadier player, though Federer has played a clean tournament thus far.
Intangibles
This is where the match will be won and lost.
Until this year, Federer had a mental edge on Djokovic. However well the Serb played, and he was one of the few players with the speed and ball-striking to hang with Federer from the baseline, he had to fight to believe that he could finish the job. This situation was in evidence at last year’s U.S. Open, where Djokovic had the better day overal, but still had to hit winners on two match points against him to survive.
That hasn’t been true in 2011. Djokovic, as he has against Nadal, has stamped out that seed of doubt in his head when he plays Federer. He took a first-set tiebreaker in Melbourne and got stronger from there, and he bounced back from a second-set loss in Indian Wells to close in the third. The Serb has improved his serve, but more important has been the mental corner he’s turned. He’s living up to his talent the way he believed he would three years ago. As for Federer, he's been unable to find an answer after losing first sets to Djokovic this year; he has generally sprayed more of his shots as the matches have progressed.
A downside for Djokovic is that he hasn’t played in four days. That’s an irregular break for a guy who has been steadily playing and winning match after match, day after day. Djokovic also comes in with, as Federer has helpfully pointed out, “a lot on the line.” A first French title, a No. 1 ranking, a possible record streak, even a shot at the Grand Slam. Federer, by contrast, who has his French title, can revel in the role of spoiler, as he once did with Nadal’s 81-match clay-court streak.
But I’ve been waiting, and finding reasons, for Djokovic’s streak to end for weeks now. I’m still waiting.
Winner: Djokovic
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