Speculation, speculation, speculation, that’s all we’ve seen, read, or heard so far in 2011. Is Kim ready? Is the Sod ready? Will Serena ever be ready again? Is Federer going to go undefeated? Should Wozniacki just hang it up now and avoid the inevitable humiliation? Can anyone kill off that ambidextrous Euro-beast called Fedal?
Which makes sense, since 2011 is nothing but future at the moment. It won’t be for too many more moments: Today we finally got a concrete idea of what the future will look like when the draws were made for the Australian Open. So without wasting any more time, let’s get down to some really serious speculation. We’ll start today with the men. (Draw is here)
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First Quarter
Rafael Nadal is the No. 1 seed and is going for his version of the Serena/Tiger Slam (not a grand slam in name, though every bit as impressive in deed). But Roger Federer has been playing so well, it feels oddly like Nadal is coming in slightly under the radar. His flu in Doha may hurt him physically in Melbourne, but, along with Federer’s revamped dominance, it has done him the service of moving just a little of the expectations off his shoulders to start.
More important for him, Rafa’s draw doesn’t hurt either. He plays 32-year-old, 96th-ranked Marcos Daniel to start, and is looking at two following rounds where the highest seed is his buddy and whipping boy Feliciano Lopez. Nadal’s quarter as a whole is not fear-inspiring. Cilic is the highest seed on his side, and Ferrer the second highest seed in the section.
There are two names to look out for: John Isner is tricky to face and has shown that he can play with Nadal; he would get him in the fourth round. And buried deep on the other side is David Nalbandian, who has taken Rafa to school a few times and is a former semifinalist (should-have-been finalist) in Melbourne. The problem for Nalbandian is that he has Lleyton Hewitt first. The good news for Nadal is that the Argentine has to get to the quarters before he can take his shot at him. This quarter should let Nadal find his form and fitness as he works his way through the first week.
Player to watch: Up and comer Richard Berankis, a tough, clean-hitting little baseliner who might get the winner of Nalby-Hewitt
Semifinalist: Nadal
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Second Quarter
So the 4 and 5 shall meet. That would be Robin Soderling and Andy Murray, who flopped spots in the rankings last week. This is a big moment for Soderling, a no-excuses kind of moment, a moment when the future disappears and becomes now. His draw looks helpful: Starace to start and names like Gulbis, Bellucci, Dolgopolov hanging around. The first test should come in the fourth round, against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Has the Sod elevated himself above the Jo-Willies of the world, permanently? We’ll find out.
As for the 5, Murray, he’s in a similar situation to Soderling. There are two potentially dangerous guys floating near him, Del Potro and Baghdatis, who would play each other in the second round. We’ll see what each of them has: Del Potro, for one, is in the crawling stages of his comeback. At the top of the draw is an even more unpredictable figure in Jurgen Melzer. Was last year for real, or a mirage? He can hang with Murray.
If it’s Murray vs. Soderling, it’s a toss-up at this point. The last time they played, at the World Tour Finals, Murray made him look like a wheel-spinning amateur. This match would be a referendum on Soderling, but I like Murray at the expectation-lowering No. 5, which is where he was last year. And I like him on these forgiving courts, where he can create defensively.
Semifinalist: Murray
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Third Quarter
Speaking of referendums . . . oh, wait, we already had our referendum on Tomas Berdych, and he been coming up wanting. Whatever his current status and level (he did win a few matches in Chennai, for what it's worth), he’s still at the top of this section as the No. 6 seed, He could lose to a lot of guys, the most likely being the slightly surging Nikolay Davydenko, who is in half of this quarter.
On the other side is Novak Djokovic. The Serb must be of two minds right now. He’s full of post-Davis Cup confidence and good humor on the one hand; on the other, he’s in Federer’s half, and Federer is the one guy in the world who is seemingly filled with more confidence. In Djokovic’s way are countryman Victor Troicki (referendum year!), Ivo Karlovic, and . . . Nicolas Almagro? On paper, this quarter is all Djoker.
First-round match to watch: Nishikori vs. Fognini; not sure why, precisely, but it should be entertaining
Semifinalist: Djokovic
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Fourth Quarter
You’d expect the fourth quarter to be all Federer, and for the most part you would be right. Lukas Lacko is a good way to start—a skilled baseliner who should force Federer to be sharp from the start, make him work for a set, and give him a lot of balls to hit. After that, the name of interest on his side of this section is Mardy Fish. Do we see a repeat of Cincy last summer? Seems unlikely as of this moment.
On the other side, the two top seeds are Andy Roddick and Gael Monfils. Roddick has been working hard but doesn’t look pleased; I can’t pick him to get by Federer in the quarters. If there’s a referendum here, it’s on Monfils. The Frenchman has reached, as he does every two years or so, a crossroads. Now, in the new season, does he make himself a new man, or does he revert to age-old form and do something weird? History would tell you the latter.
First-round match to watch: Monfils vs. de Bakker
Semifinalist: Federer
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Semifinals: Nadal d. Murray—Murray can beat him at the majors, but the Rafa Slam will be the motivating difference-maker; Federer d. Djokovic
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Final: If it’s 1 vs. 2, the question will be: Can the new wrinkles that Federer showed off in London, most prominently his ability to break the typical rally pattern with his crosscourt backhand, work again? Or will Nadal have already learned to match him wrinkle for wrinkle? I think Federer will get another win out of them. They were good wrinkles.
Federer d. Nadal