Just when might think all is lost, it sounds like there’s a chance that the Open will finally emerge from the darkness and the mist on Sunday. It’s been an ugly and underwhelming couple of days for fans and players alike, and a nightmare scramble for tournament officials. Serena Williams did her best to liven things up Saturday night, but not in a way that any tennis fan would want to savor, or even remember. It was, quite simply, a low moment in the history of the sport.
But here in the nick of time come the bright shining lights of the men’s semis, a blockbuster lineup if there ever was one. And the weather is scheduled to cooperate. We’ve been waiting to see some tennis; more than that, we’ve been waiting to see men’s match-ups as consequential as these for months now. For the first time since January in Melbourne, the biggest guns of all, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, will be in action on the final weekend of a major. If that can’t rescue the Open, nothing can.
Rafael Nadal vs. Juan-Martin del Potro
This is an excruciating match to predict. Nadal won the first four times they played, del Potro the last two, both of which played on hard courts this season. Logic might tell you that he’ll make it three in a row. The Argentine has been working toward a Slam final all season, he’s fixed all the flaws and weaknesses, except perhaps his five-set fitness, that have plagued him in the past, and he’s looked as assured as he ever has at this tournament, easily recovering from a set-and-a-break deficit against Marin Cilic in the quarterfinals. And the vaunted Nadal topspin will land right in the 6-foot-6 DP’s strike zone all afternoon.
On the other hand, Nadal doesn’t tolerate losing to anyone on a regular basis. No one does, but he takes special motivation from past defeats. Early in his career, he insisted on playing Richard Gasquet on a bad foot because he had lost to him in their last match and wanted to get his chance to turn that result around. You might think that del Potro would have an advantage having been able to rest since Thursday, while Nadal has been hanging around waiting to finish off Fernando Gonzalez. But that might leave del Potro as cold as it keeps Nadal’s game warm; the Spaniard won’t be exhausted after Gonzo’s total non-effort on Saturday. Like I said, this is essentially a toss-up, and might even give us a semi like the one we saw between Nadal and Fernando Verdasco in Australia. Del Potro is the man of the moment, but Nadal has six majors. I’ll take that guy.
Winner: Nadal
Roger Federer vs. Novak Djokovic
They’ve faced each other the last two years at the Open, and Federer has won six sets while losing just one. You know what you’ll get out of him; does he ever have off days at majors? I don’t mean off days for him, but total off days. The only moments that come to mind were the fifth set of the Aussie Open final this year, and maybe the French final in 2008.
Both of those, of course, came against Rafael Nadal, not Novak Djokovic. This match will likely depend on the Serb’s form and level of belief and determination. He’s beaten Federer twice this year, but both of those were passive wins where he let his opponent self-destruct (and destroy his equipment). He’s been up and down at the Open so far, fighting fiercely to beat Jesse Witten, but looking sluggish for long periods against Verdasco. How juiced will he be to win this? I have no idea at the moment; Djokovic, like Serena Williams, is a player beholden to his moods. Federer hasn’t been in a bad one in a long time.
Winner: Federer
Enjoy it, we deserve it.