RG: Russian Roulette

The TV will not love this match. The great enigma known as the American Public will turn a blind eye. The mythical and much-discussed “casual sports fan” will not tune in. Should we care? From his name, I somehow picture this fan slouching on his sofa in a Megadeth T-shirt on a Saturday morning, grudgingly moving his eyes to follow the ball back and forth over the net, wishing to God that the Indy 500 was on this weekend. (And good for him—Megadeth rocked.)

Even among devotees of the sport, Dinara Safina vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova can hardly be called a clash of the titans. Like it or not, you need to have Venus or Serena (but not Venus and Serena) for that. Instead, happy-go-lucky Kuzzie derailed the hoped-for Battle of the Reals—as in, the battle to see who really deserved to be No. 1, Safina or Serena. But if you’ve been following the women over the last couple of months in Europe, this is the match-up you likely anticipated seeing on the final Saturday in Paris. The two Russians have been the class of the clay-court season. Kuznetsova beat Safina in the Stuttgart final; Safina turned the tables on her in Rome.

In this sense, we have a representative and well-deserved title round, with no one-shot wonders to wonder about. The match also comes with a few subplots of its own. They may be the usual ones we hear about on the women’s tour these days—which player not named Williams has what it takes to win a major; can anyone hold back the jitters and take the tour by the throat?—but that doesn’t make them any less compelling for the moment. Each of these women has a few chokes, duds, and ugly disintegrations in her past, but each has shown a surprising competitive reserve of late.

Safina has reacted to Serena’s No. 1 talk startlingly well. In Rome, where Williams made her comments, Safina showed more upbeat, aggressive energy than I’ve ever seen from her. And in Paris she’s gone even farther, riding out nervous early moments and a lost first set to Victoria Azarenka with her lumbering authority and poise intact. Not that the old Safin blood doesn’t continue to flow through her veins. In the third against Azarenka, she grabbed an early lead but still howled at the sky with useless frustration after losing a relatively inconsequential point. Remind you of anyone?

For Kuzzie, it's been tightness at the wrong moment, and in the wrong match, as well as a lack of cutthroat ambition, that has traditionally been her downfall. Like Safina, she hasn’t completely left her problems behind in Paris. She was up 5-2 in the second-set tiebreaker of her semifinal with Sam Stosur, two points from the match, when started to play safe and lost five straight points. Still, she steadied herself in the third and became more aggressive to close out the last game.

Safina and Kuznetsova two have a long history together. They've played 13 times dating back to 2000; Safina holds an 8-5 to edge, has won five of their last six meetings (all in straight sets), and has beaten Kuz in two of their three finals.

As for the strengths and weaknesses that they'll being to their 14 encounter:

—Kuznetsova is the more natural mover on clay, the better athlete, and the steadier server

—Kuznetsova is infinitely flakier and possesses one of the worst records in finals of any player in history. Like I said, one thing she has always lacked is vicious ambition.

—Safina is grittier and has made herself the mentally stronger player, for the moment

—Safina is fit and hits a heavier and safer ball without sacrificing too much power, though Kuznetsova can smack winners from anywhere

—After losing two Slam finals in the last year, Safina believes she should have this title, and she’s going to do everything she can to get it while the Williams sisters are away. Kuznetsova still seems to be convincing herself of her own right to the championship, though she has been to the final here before and knows she has the skills to take the final step.

I think this one will be decided by consistency over the long run. Kuznetsova plays a wristy, risky game. With her, every ball could be a winner or a head-scratching, eye-rolling misfire. She’ll take a rip from anywhere, at any time, though she did show a little more restraint in her last two rounds. Consistency, doggedness, a grinder’s mentality—this is what wins on clay, and while Safina is no born dirtballer, she has very slowly incorporated those three virtues into a game that was once most notable for irrational fits of rage. Can Safina manage the anger for two more sets? I’m thinking she can, and I’ll be happy to slouch on my couch Saturday morning and watch her try.