After months of stories about injuries, exhaustion, overscheduling and various other reasons for tennis players not playing tennis, we’ve finally got the top men in one place this week in Indian Wells. While the women still don’t have it together—only five of the Top 15 made the trip—it’s heartening to see at least one fully loaded draw.
And it makes sense, at least from a northern-hemisphere point of view. Whenever there’s talk about shortening the pro schedule, the first idea is to move the beginning of the season from January to March. Two months ago, at the Australian Open, names like Safin, Agassi, and Nadal were still recovering from the previous season’s wear and tear; this week, all three are ready to go, and it obviously makes a huge difference for the event.
For better or worse, this is what the Masters Series is supposed to look like. With 96 entrants (32 fewer than the Slams) and all the highest-ranked players—clay- and hard-court specialists alike—going head-to-head in the desert with few rest days, Indian Wells is meant to be brutal from start to finish. Yesterday you could wander the grounds and see hard-fought early-round matches between Safin and Carlos Moya, Nikolay Davydenko and Andy Murray, Andy Roddick and Jose Acasuso.
So who looks ready to go all the way? In the spirit of March Madness, I’ve give you my final four predictions for the men and women.
Men
Top half: Roger Federer vs. Nikolay Davydenko
Federer didn’t look all that strong against Nicolas Massu this weekend. Was it just me, or was something a little off about his service motion? On second serves in particular he seemed to be rushing it a bit and losing some pace. Two potential match-ups could be tricky for Federer: Richard Gasquet in the round of 16 and Ivan Ljubicic in the quarters. Gasquet beat him last year, and if he goes into his microwave mode, he could do it again. But the chance of him doing that for two full sets is slim. Ljubicic plays Federer tight—in their last four matches, they’ve gone to five tiebreakers—but his forehand breaks down at clutch moments against the Federer baseline barrage. The world No. 1 has beaten him five straight times.
Davydenko/Safin, to be played Monday afternoon, is a tough one to call, but whoever gets through has a great shot at the semis. Somehow, the two Russians had never played before this month, when Safin won in three in Dubai. While Safin has the bigger game, I liked the way Davydenko was moving and hitting against Murray yesterday.
Bottom half: Rafael Nadal vs. Tommy Haas
By now, Nadal looks pretty comfortable on hard courts (located outside Flushing Meadows, at least), and his section of the draw isn’t packed. A quarterfinal match with Lleyton Hewitt would be interesting. Hewitt is 3-0 against him, but the matches were grinding affairs, and they all took place before Nadal was in the Top 10. Rafa will be more than ready this time.
Haas is admittedly a long shot. He has underachieved and been intimidated by top players in the past. But he has beaten his next opponent, Andre Agassi, three times over the years (while losing six). Haas, who just turned 28 and is embarking on the second major comeback of his career, has also been playing great tennis in smaller events, winning this year at Delray Beach and Memphis. It’s time for him to bring that game to the top tier.
Women
Top half: Justine Henin-Hardenne vs. Elena Dementieva
Henin-Hardenne is the in the weakest quarter and should have no trouble overcoming her next opponent, Aiko Nakamura, or Flavia Pennetta, the second-highest seed in that section.
The ever-unpredictable Dementieva will face decent competition from Sania Mirza, Maria Kirilenko, and maybe even Vania King, a 17-year-old Californian who has been playing some solid tennis while making the transition from the juniors to the pro ranks. But none of these players can match Dementieva when she’s dialed in.
Bottom half: Lindsay Davenport vs. Maria Sharapova
Davenport plays Martina Hingis next, and even at Hingis’ peak she had trouble with the weight of the American’s ground strokes. But it will be fun to see if she can find a way around them this time. In the end, I don’t think she’s ready to bring the big hitter down. Sharapova, like Henin-Hardenne, benefits from a soft quarter. Really soft, in fact: The next-highest seed is Anna-Lena Groenefeld. After that, there’s nowhere to go but up for Sharapova—last year Davenport beat her in the semis in Indian Wells 6-0, 6-0. I’ll go out on a limb and say that isn’t going to happen again.