Roland Garros Betting Preview: Elina Svitolina vs. Jasmine Paolini

Jasmine Paolini was the runner-up in Roland Garros last year, and she won the Internazionali BNL d’Italia this year. Over the last 52 weeks, the Italian is 21-4 on clay. She has been an absolute force on this surface, and she is a popular pick to make the semifinals in Paris this year. However, Elina Svitolina comes into this tournament in some outrageous form. The Ukrainian is 15-2 on the dirt since arriving in Europe for the start of the clay-court swing, and one of those losses came against Aryna Sabalenka in Madrid.

While Paolini will be a trendy pick to win this match, it’s a brutal matchup for the world No. 4. And I actually like Svitolina to advance to the quarterfinals.

Heading into Roland Garros, Svitolina had a 75.1% hold percentage and a 42.5% break percentage. That’s a much stronger statistical profile than Paolini’s, as the Italian had a 67.6% hold percentage and 43.7% break percentage before arriving in Paris. Both of these players are relentless as returners, but Svitolina definitely has the more reliable serve. She has done great work to improve with the ball on her racquet, and that is a big part of the reason she’s playing her best tennis since 2017.

In addition to holding advantages in the serve and return departments, Svitolina’s baseline game should give Paolini some trouble. Both of these players move extremely well, and they’re used to grinding down opponents. However, Paolini is the one that has the biggest weakness on the court, and that’s her backhand. Svitolina is going to do her best to pepper that side of the court, as she knows that avoiding the Paolini forehand is huge.

Svitolina has already shown that she can deploy a winning strategy against Paolini. At the Australian Open, she beat the Italian 2-6, 6-4, 6-0. Sure, that was before Paolini started playing her best tennis, but the same is also true of Svitolina. The Ukrainian has more wins on clay than anybody on the WTA this season.

It also shouldn’t surprise anybody if Svitolina has the support of the crowd in this one. Paolini is normally a crowd favorite, and she had quite the home-court advantage playing in Rome a few weeks ago. But Svitolina is married to Gael Monfils, who is one of the most popular French players of all time. That has always scored Svitolina some extra brownie points at Roland Garros, and it could give her a nice boost here.

Pick: Svitolina ML (+100)