Roland Garros Betting Preview: Emilio Nava vs. Botic van de Zandschulp

There are some high-profile matches on the first full day of Roland Garros action, but I’m zeroed in on Emilio Nava versus Botic van de Zandschulp.

This might not be a match that will find its way on many radars, but there’s some value in backing the 23-year-old. Outside of a win over Novak Djokovic at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, van de Zandschulp really hasn’t done anything this season. Meanwhile, Nava has had a ton of success on the Challenger Tour, and most of that has come on clay.

Van de Zandschulp is just 4-9 at the ATP level this season, and he’s also just 3-6 on clay over the last 52 weeks. The Dutch touch just doesn’t seem to be there for the 29-year-old. Since going 38-29 in 2022, van de Zandschulp hasn’t had a winning season at the tour level. It appears people have figured out his serve, as his hold percentage is just 72.5% in 2025. Considering his break percentage is also just 19.6%, he’s really just making it difficult on himself to win matches.

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Nava hasn’t had much success at the tour level, where he’s just 3-15 in his career. But he’s 30-9 on the Challenger Tour this season, and he has won three clay-court titles and made the final of another. Of course, Nava has lost four of his last five coming into this one, so he might not be in the same form he was in throughout March and April. That was when he was dominating opponents on the dirt. But I like his game to disrupt van de Zandschulp on this surface, which is why I’m willing to ignore the recent results.

Nava is just a better mover than van de Zandschulp, who actually does a good job of covering the court for a bigger player. And when you combine that with Nava being a better ball striker, it’s hard to find reasons to like the Dutchman. Nava has a massive forehand, and it’s especially lethal on clay. And it just isn’t hard to envision him bullying van de Zandschulp around the court with it. At the very least, he should regularly have van de Zandschulp on the move.

If that isn’t enough, Nava should be the better server and returner here. While the Challenger Tour is the Challenger Tour, Nava has a hold percentage of 81.4% and a break percentage of 32.2% in 39 matches at that level in 2025. He has the ability to go big with his first serve, and he can also hit his spots pretty regularly. And as a returner, I have less concerns about that success translating. He has seen better servers than van de Zandschulp on the Challenger Tour, so he should do a good job of putting balls back in play and getting points back to neutral.

This just feels like a good opportunity to back the better player, on his strongest surface. And it’s surprising that we’re getting plus-money odds to do it.

Pick: Nava ML (+110)