Roland Garros Betting Preview: Iga Swiatek vs. Aryna Sabalenka

On Thursday, June 5, world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will look to end Iga Swiatek’s three-year reign at Roland Garros. Perhaps improbably, Swiatek finds herself as a (slight) underdog in this match, owing to the Belarusian's rise—on all surfaces—and the Pole's extended slump.

Sabalenka has gotten much better on clay in recent years. She’s 20-3 on the surface over the last 52 weeks, her dropshot is tremendous and her movement continues to improve. She has also gotten much better at hitting with heavy topspin. When Sabalenka plays with shape, she can go big and aim for larger targets, reducing her error count. It was a given for Swiatek to extract errors from Sabalenka, but Aryna isn't as mistake-prone as she once was, and Iga isn’t as sturdy as she once was.

While Sabalenka has improved on clay, Swiatek was just 6-3 across Stuttgart, Madrid and Rome this year. She was blasted off the court by Jelena Ostapenko (again), Coco Gauff and Danielle Collins. Swiatek’s hold percentage is down from where it was last year, and she hasn’t looked as solid from the baseline. But getting back to Paris appears to have awoken the beast.

Swiatek trailed Elena Rybakina 6-1, 2-0 in the fourth round—it looked like we seeing the same kind of matchup that undid the four-time Roland Garros champion earlier in the clay-court season. But Swiatek snapped out of it from there, winning 1-6, 6-3, 7-5. Her serve got a lot better, her return game was potent and she was firing on all cylinders with her forehand. When that forehand is on, it’s the best shot in tennis, especially on slow clay.

She followed that win up with a 6-1, 7-5 victory over a red-hot Elina Svitolina. Now, you have to weigh whether or not you care more about a few months of shaky play or Swiatek’s 42-2 record in Paris. I’m going with the latter.

In 2022, Swiatek beat Sabalenka in Rome 6-2, 6-1. Last year, she also beat her in Rome, 6-2, 6-3. While Sabalenka got on the board with a clay-court win over the Pole in Madrid last season, we still haven’t seen her beat Swiatek in slower conditions. And for as many improvements as Sabalenka has made on the dirt, I still think Swiatek’s ability to defend the baseline and hit with heavy topspin can cause the world No. 1 problems.

Realistically, it shouldn’t shock anybody if Sabalenka wins this match. She’s the world No. 1, and she's been the best player in tennis for almost two years. But Swiatek’s struggles have been a bit overblown. And when she’s in form, she shouldn’t be an underdog on Court Philippe Chatrier.

Pick: Swiatek ML (+112)