Roland Garros Betting Preview: Karen Khachanov vs. Tommy Paul

Tommy Paul is coming off a gutsy comeback against Marton Fucsovics in the second round at Roland Garros. Not only was the American down two sets, but Fucsovics also served for the match at 5-3 in the fourth set. In the end, Paul proved to be a little too much, winning 4-6, 2-6, 6-3, 7-5, 6-4 in three hours and 38 minutes.

The issue for Paul is that he still looked really off throughout the match, and he was visibly struggling with pain for most of it. He confirmed afterward that he’s been having some lower abdomen problems. With only one day between matches, it’s hard to be comfortable with that information. That’s why I’m taking Karen Khachanov to beat him on Friday, May 30.

Paul has the ability to play aggressively, which we saw in his match against Jannik Sinner in Rome. He does so much more damage off the ground than he used to, and he has also improved leaps and bounds as a server. However, playing defense along the baseline and grinding out wins is still a huge part of his identity, and if that is compromised, it’s going to be very difficult for him to beat a player with Khachanov’s all-court ability.

Khachanov did just have a bit of a war himself, as he needed five sets to beat Sebastian Ofner. But Ofner had just defeated Khachanov in Geneva the previous week, and the Austrian has always been a tough player to beat when he’s in form. So, if anything, Khachanov’s second-round win was more impressive than it might seem on paper. And I'm not all that concerned with the Russian's conditioning.

Khachanov is also just a tough matchup, period: as he has a big serve, covers the court well for a guy his size and has a good two-handed backhand. The American is usually capable of dominating backhand-to-backhand exchanges, but I’m not sure he’ll be able to do it here. Also, Khachanov is really good at redirecting shots from the backhand wing, going down the line when opponents least expect it. That might be a good play for him if Paul’s movement is hampered.

Paul is 2-0 in this head-to-head series, and he beat Khachanov as recently as April 29. That was a 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 win in Madrid. But two matches isn’t really enough to establish any sort of edge over an opponent, and these conditions are different. They’re slower, grittier and demand more from the players physically. That’s why Khachanov looks like such an enticing bet against his wounded opponent.

Pick: Khachanov ML (-130)