Roland Garros Betting Preview: Luciano Darderi vs. Sebastian Korda

On Monday, May 26, Sebastian Korda takes on Luciano Darderi in one of the early Day 2 matches at Roland Garros. On paper, this is a match many will believe Korda should win. The American is a household name for casual fans; father, Petr, won two Grand Slam titles; also, Nelly, Sebastian’s sister, is one of the best golfers in the world. An early looking at betting splits backs up the fact that the public is backing Korda, as nearly 90% of the tickets and money in the match have come in on the American.

However, Darderi is a more accomplished clay-court player, and he comes into this match in much better form. That said, at plus-money odds, I’m taking my chances with the Italian.

Korda is just 3-4 on the European clay-court swing, and his wins have come over Matteo Arnaldi, Federico Cina and Aleksandar Vukic. Arnaldi is a very solid player, but none of those victories were overly impressive. Korda is also just 26-23 on clay in his ATP career, and that 53.1% winning percentage is the lowest he has on any surface. Also, his 10-9 record overall in 2025 gives him a winning percentage of 52.6%, which would be the lowest mark he has posted in a full season at the ATP level.

Darderi is almost the opposite of Korda. He’s 34-18 on clay at the ATP level, and he’s 16-10 on the surface over the last 52 weeks. Darderi also won a title in Marrakech this year, and he reached the final of a strong Challenger-level event in Naples.

Darderi is just very comfortable on the dirt, but he’s not a clay-court “merchant.” Normally, winning a lot of matches on clay will have people assuming you’re nothing but a grinder from the back of the court. That’s not Darderi. The Italian has a big serve, a big forehand and an aggressive all-around approach. He’s just good on clay because he moves well around the court, and he’s very good at sliding into his groundstrokes. He also is capable of hitting with heavy topspin, which is important on a court that rewards players with big jumps off the clay.

It’s hard not to feel like Darderi should be favored in this match, and that’s really not a shot at Korda. The American has played only seven clay-court matches this year, and Darderi has played 26. That’s a difference in experience that is hard to make up with a few quick training sessions in Paris.

Pick: Darderi ML (+120)