Roland Garros Day 10 preview & pick: Rafael Nadal vs. Jannik Sinner

Nick Bollettieri, coach of ten former world No. 1s, firmly believes that champions are born, not made. There’s no special drill, no perfect technique—just a burning, internal need (rather than a desire) to win. When an opportunity is presented to a great champion, they tend to seize it.

In April 2019, Jannik Sinner sat at No. 314 in the rankings with zero ATP wins to his name. That week, he received a wild card into the ATP Budapest qualifying draw. He lost, but was granted a lucky-loser entry to the main draw, where he earned his first ATP victory over local wild card and world No. 323 Mate Valkusz.

It wasn’t the biggest win he'd ever earned, considering some of his junior performances, but it spurred his belief. The next week he reached the final of the Ostrova Challenger. He then received a wild card into Rome, where he defeated Steve Johnson in the first round, and the rest is history. Since then, Sinner has climbed as high as No. 68 in the ranks, earning wins over Gael Monfils, David Goffin, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Alexander Zverev. Not bad for a 19-year-old whose primary sport just six years ago was skiing, not tennis.

Fittingly, Sinner has become the first player to reach the Roland Garros quarterfinal in his first appearance since Rafael Nadal—his quarterfinal opponent on Tuesday—who won the tournament in his first-ever appearance at 19.

Nadal is a tennis genius, not just hyper-aware of his own game, but his competitors as well.

“[Sinner] is young, he's improving every single week,” Nadal told press. “So he's playing better and better and better. It will be a big challenge. I practice with him a couple of times, he has an amazing potential, he move the hand very quick and he's able to produce amazing shots.”

According to USTA Pro Circuit commentator Mike Cation, who has had a front row seat for much of Sinner’s journey through the ATP Challenger circuit, the teenager’s greatest gift is his ability to learn from his losses, process what went wrong, and immediately adjust.

“I watched him in Binghamton for the first time; he was super awkward, like a baby giraffe that had just been born. He didn’t win that week, but he spent the most time of any player working with his team on the practice court. He went to Lexington the next week and won the tournament, and nobody was surprised in the least.”

While an upset over Nadal would surprise everyone, there are a couple things working in the Italian's favor. First off, the cold conditions and heavy new Wilson balls mean the ball bounces much lower than normal at Roland Garros. Nadal has still been dominant in Paris, but his forehand is not bouncing as high as in years past. This should allow Sinner to hit at least some of his backhands inside his strike zone, instead of high above it.

The second, and most important advantage Sinner owns over all his peers—according to Infosys ATP Beyond the Numbers—is that he produces more spin on his backhand than anyone. Spin equals safety and control, and Nadal has yet to face a backhand hit as heavy as Sinner's.

Sinner has always ripped the cover off the ball, but look at the height and depth of this backhand against Zverev. The German understandably coughed up a short reply, which allowed Sinner to sieze control of the point:

Zverev knows better than to leave the line open, but that doesn't make this open-stance backhand laser any less impressive:

There is nothing more difficult in all of sport than beating Nadal at Roland Garros, but don’t expect Sinner to be awed by the moment.

The Pick: Rafael Nadal