Roland Garros Men's Betting Preview: Cerundolo, Musetti offer value in Paris

The wait for the second major of the season always feels like an eternity, as the Australian Open and Roland Garros are spaced far apart. But that wait is finally over. The top players in the world are ready to compete in Paris, where Carlos Alcaraz will be looking to defend his title. Last year, Alcaraz outlasted Alexander Zverev 6-3, 2-6, 5-7, 6-1, 6-2 on Court Philippe-Chatrier, and the Spaniard will feel good about his chances heading into this year’s tournament. Alcaraz won two of the season’s three clay-court Masters 1000 titles, one of those featuring a straight-set win over Jannik Sinner in Rome.

But winning another title at Roland Garros will test Alcaraz in new ways, and there will be plenty of players—including Zverev, Sinner, Novak Djokovic and other contenders—gunning for him. With that in mind, we’re in for a fun couple of weeks in the City of Light.

Let’s take a look at things from a betting perspective.

Recent Roland Garros Winners

• 2020: Rafael Nadal
• 2021: Novak Djokovic
• 2022: Rafael Nadal
• 2023: Novak Djokovic
• 2024: Carlos Alcaraz

Roland Garros Betting Odds

• Carlos Alcaraz (+105)
• Jannik Sinner (+190)
• Novak Djokovic (12-1)
• Alexander Zverev (16-1)
• Lorenzo Musetti (20-1)
• Casper Ruud (28-1)
• Jack Draper (33-1)
• Stefanos Tsitsipas (50-1)
• Holger Rune (50-1)
• Arthur Fils (50-1)

(For the rest of the odds, head over to BetMGM)

Roland Garros Conditions

The conditions in Paris are similar to those in Rome. Tennis Abstract had a Surface Speed of 0.66 for Roland Garros last year, and this year’s Internazionali BNL d’Italia had a Surface Speed of 0.63. That number means that players hit 34% fewer aces at last year’s French Open than they did in a tour-average event.

That doesn’t mean that serving isn’t important in Paris—it’s important everywhere. But these courts grip the ball, produce high bounces and give players a better chance of getting into rallies. Also, when it comes to baseline exchanges, the higher bounces and slower speeds favor point construction and an ability to grind out longer rallies.

It’s also very important to be able to hit a lively ball, whether that’s with your serve or your baseline shots. Players that can get a good jump or kick with their shots are at a big advantage in Paris. Hitting lower, flatter shots isn’t as effective.

Roland Garros Players To Watch

Lorenzo Musetti (20-1): There isn’t another bet in the tournament that intrigues me as much as Musetti to win the third quarter. The best players in the Italian’s quarter are Taylor Fritz and Holger Rune, but both of them have real question marks. Fritz really hasn’t played well all year, and while Rune has a Barcelona title to his name, he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. That said, Musetti, who reached the semifinal round of all three clay-court 1000s this year, should reach the semis here. From Monte-Carlo to Rome, only five players had a higher Performance Rating than Musetti’s 8.13, according to TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations. And Musetti has a few of them beat when it comes to toughness and late-match mettle. It just feels like the Italian is about to be a mainstay in the ATP’s Top 10, and he’s going to continue banking good results in the biggest tournaments. I like that to continue with him taking advantage of a great draw in Paris.

Francisco Cerundolo (66-1): Cerundolo didn’t look quite right in Hamburg, where he lost to Jiri Lehecka 7-5, 6-2 in the Round of 16. But it’s more important to focus on what he has done at some of the big 1000-level events this year. Cerundolo went to the quarterfinals at both Indian Wells and Miami, took a set off Alcaraz in the Round of 32 in Monte Carlo, and went all the way to the semifinals in Madrid. Cerundolo is having a career year—his winning percentage of 69.2% is the highest he has ever had on the ATP Tour. And given his ability to obliterate forehands and move extremely well on the dirt, you just can’t rule out the possibility of him getting hot. Also, Zverev is the highest-seeded player in his half of his quarter, and Cerundolo is 3-0 against the German.

Roland Garros Pick To Win

Jannik Sinner (+190): Perhaps beating Alcaraz on a clay court is an uphill battle for Sinner right now, but it’s hard not to like the Italian to at least reach the final. And that makes him worthy of a play at anything in the +200 range.

Sinner was a -145 favorite against Alcaraz in the Rome final, but the Spaniard's straight-set win likely means last year’s Roland Garros champ will be favored in a potential rematch. However, it’s hard to imagine Sinner being available in the final at a price as good as this, making this a play worth taking even if it’s just to hedge later on.

But I strongly believe Sinner can beat Alcaraz on clay. The Spaniard’s movement is definitely better than the Italian’s on this surface, but Sinner can make up for that with cleaner ball striking. We didn’t see that in Rome: Sinner’s Shot Quality score (7.6) from the forehand wing was the second-lowest number he has posted since the start of the 2024 season, and we’re talking about the best forehand in tennis. If he’s hitting a little better from that side of the court in the final, he should be right there in the end.

Also, Alcaraz played a flawless match when it comes to tactics and shot selection in Rome, and I’m just not in a place where I can trust him to do that again. So, I truly think Sinner is live to win his fourth major—and first on clay.