Roland Garros men’s final preview: Can Alexander Zverev finally cross the Grand Slam finish line against Flavio Cobolli?

Alexander Zverev vs. Flavio Cobolli

A wild and wacky and sometimes shocking Roland Garros men’s event will conclude with a final that doesn’t really feel like any of those things.

Zverev is the No. 2 seed, and a 29-year-old veteran who has made it this far at a major three times before. Cobolli, 24, is obviously more of a surprise; he’s the 10th seed and had never been past the quarters at a Slam. But he’s a known quantity and Top 15 player, and the fact that he advanced to the final in a walkover—his countryman Matteo Arnaldi was too ill to play their semifinal—takes a little of the thrill out of an otherwise excellent run.

What we’ll see on Sunday is a match between two guys who have gotten to know each other well, as opponents and friends, over the past couple of years.

“For me, he’s just a nice person,” says Zverev of Cobolli, adding that they first bonded at Laver Cup in 2024. “He has a good heart. He’s extremely funny if you get to know him.”

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Zverev sounds like he thinks that friendship will help him feel a little more comfortable on a pressure-filled day.

“When you play a Grand Slam final…it means you reached the best stage in tennis,” he says. “You reached the latest stage in tennis, and it’s nice to share it, for sure.”

As opponents, this will be their fifth meeting in the span of 12 months, and their fourth on clay. Last year, Zverev won in straight sets in the third round at Roland Garros. This spring, they’ve split two matches; Cobolli won on Zverev’s turf in Munich, before Zverev avenged himself in Madrid.

How did the lower-ranked, less-accomplished and physically less imposing Cobolli earn that win? He played what one commentator called a “crazy good level” over two sets. The Italian threw everything he had at the German—blazing forehands, drop shots, big kick second serves, sneak attacks into the net—and it all clicked.

Doing that for two sets in Munich is one thing. Doing it over best-of-five in Chatrier is another. Zverev is an expert defuser of hot streaks from his opponents, especially in the longer Slam format. He can defuse them with his serve, or with his rangy, steady, topspin-heavy baseline game. Zverev seems to understand that if he plays his normal level, he should win, while Cobolli will be need to play something better than his norm.

“The only thing I can control is that I play good tennis,” Zverev says. “I mean, I will try to show my level. I will try to do the right things. That’s the only thing that matters to me.”

Zverev has more experience in Slam finals, but he also has more painful experience. He was up two sets in the 2020 US Open, before collapsing under the weight of the moment. He was up two sets to one in the Roland Garros final two years ago, but won just three more games after that.

A repeat of those performances is possible, especially against an opponent he’s supposed to beat, and especially if he gets near the finish line. But I wouldn’t expect it to happen again. Since Jannik Sinner lost more than a week ago, Zverev has faced the pressure of going for his first major title as the favorite, and hasn’t looked disturbed by it. His serve is also sturdier now. Still, Cobolli should know that nerves are a possibility, and not lose hope if he’s behind.

This will be a classic clay-court match, with both guys starting points well behind the baseline, sending looping topspin missiles back and forth. It will likely be up to Cobolli to break that pattern by taking more risks. And it will be up to Zverev to defuse whatever threats he throws his way. Like I said, he’s good at that. Winner: Zverev