Roland Garros semifinal previews: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic, Casper Ruud vs. Alexander Zverev

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic

“If you want to be the best, you have to beat the best.” Alcaraz and Djokovic both made that statement after their quarterfinal wins on Tuesday.

The respect is mutual, and deserved in both cases. The Spaniard and the Serb can each make a plausible case for being “the best” right now. Alcaraz is No. 1, he’s taken the sport and its future by storm over the past year and a half, and at 20 he’s the state of the art when it comes to tennis shot-making and athleticism. But it’s Djokovic who has 22 major titles to just one for Alcaraz, including two at Roland Garros. Since the start of 2021, Djokovic is 50-2 at the Slams.

Djokovic rightly said before this tournament started that he felt like he had an advantage over everyone else in best-of-five. As he showed in his four-set win over Karen Khachanov in the quarterfinals, he doesn’t panic when he’s down early, and he’s thoroughly confident in his ability to elevate his level when the do-or-die moment comes.

Alcaraz, by contrast, has a tendency to let his his level dip and his shots spray over the course of a match, especially when he has a seemingly comfortable lead. This longer format makes that more likely to happen at some point on Friday.

If a tennis match were all about hitting and running, Alcaraz, who is 16 years Djokovic’s junior, would be the clear favorite. He has the edge in power and speed, and his forehand will be the best shot on the court. But Djokovic makes up a lot of ground in intangibles. Alcaraz obviously doesn’t lack for confidence, but he has never beaten one of the Big 3 at a major. And who will be more desperate to walk a way with a victory—the guy with his whole career ahead of him, or the 36-year-old who wants to become the all-time men’s leader in Grand Slam titles?

Djokovic will likely win the battle of the head. But I think Alcaraz will still win the battle of the racquet. Winner: Alcaraz

Line Calls, presented by FanDuel: Alcaraz vs. Djokovic ⬇️

Casper Ruud vs. Alexander Zverev

What a difference two weeks have made, for each of these guys. Zverev and Ruud are established Grand Slam contenders in the primes of their careers, and both have been ranked as high as No. 2. But as the tours wound their way to Roland Garros, neither looked likely to make it this far in 2023. Ruud was mired in a mediocre season filled with early-round losses, while Zverev was returning from an injury—suffered in last year’s semifinal in Paris—that had kept him out for most of 2022.

But Zverev and Ruud have gone deep at Roland Garros in the past, and they showed they still know their way around a best-of-five-set match on clay. The German has made his methodical way through a relatively fortunate draw; his biggest test came from 12th-seeded Frances Tiafoe in the third round. The Norwegian has only played one seed, but he did have two mental hurdles to cross. In the fourth round, he beat Nicolas Jarry, who had eliminated him two weeks earlier in Geneva. In the quarters, he beat Holger Rune, who had beaten him the week before that, in Rome. Ruud used those losses as fuel, and now seems to be playing as well as he was when he made the final here last year.

Ruud and Zverev have played three times, though never on clay. Zverev has won twice, but Ruud won their only meeting of 2022, in three sets in Miami. This match seems like a toss-up between two equally matched foes. Ruud has the better, heavier forehand; Zverev has the better, more penetrating backhand; they both have good serves, and they’re both comfortable on clay.

I’ll give the nod to Ruud because of his runner-up finish in 2022, and the confidence and relief he’s likely feeling after fending off a comeback and beating the slightly favored Rune on Wednesday. Winner: Ruud