Rome ATP Final Preview: Alexander Zverev and Nicolas Jarry cap another surprising men’s week

At the start of the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, I wrote that the men’s event could be unpredictable. The season’s two best players, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, were absent. The No. 1 seed, Novak Djokovic, hadn’t won a title in 2024. And the defending champion, Daniil Medvedev, had injured himself the week before in Madrid.

Still, there was little reason to believe Zverev or Jarry would be the ones to take advantage of those openings at the top. Both are quality players, and Zverev is the No. 3 seed and a former champion in Rome, but neither had been close to his best during the clay swing to that point. Zverev was a meh 4-3, while Jarry was a worse-than-meh 0-3 in his three events on dirt. But here they are, playing for a Masters 1000 title, and a chance to travel to Roland Garros with more momentum than anyone else on the ATP tour.

Zverev had the smoother road, facing just one Top 20 opponent in Taylor Fritz, and dropping just one set, to Alejandro Tabilo in the semifinals. Jarry has played three three-setters in his five matches, but he also has the best win of the two, over Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals. After close semifinal wins, both guys should feel as if they can take a punch in the final and come back to win.

Most of the signs point to Zverev being the one holding the trophy in the end. He’s 4-2 against Jarry, and he won their last two meetings, both in 2023. He’s ranked 19 spots higher (No. 5 to No. 24). He has been to two finals in Rome, and won one of them. Jarry, meanwhile, has three smaller titles in his career, and will be playing his first Masters 1000 final.

“He’s a very good player,” Jarry said of Zverev on Friday. “He already won here. He’s a tough, tough guy to beat. Amazing backhand, good serve. He’s playing very good tennis right now.”

Zverev does indeed have a very good serve and backhand, and he’s steadier and rangier from the baseline. But Jarry has the proverbial puncher’s chance. He’s the more aggressive of the two, and hits a heavier, more penetrating ball. The Chilean is also at his best on clay. All three of his (250-level) titles have come on the surface, and he’s 2-2 against Zverev on dirt.

“I think Nicolas is one of the most aggressive players we have on the tour,” Zverev says. “Obviously huge serve, huge forehand. Tries to hit big from both sides of the court. A very impressive win…against Tsitsipas. He was down throughout most of the match, always managed to come back. Very impressive from him.”

So this should be a competitive and hard-hitting match. Both guys have had a rest day, and both will have crowd support. Zverev is a favorite of the fans in Italy, while Jarry will get loud love from the Chilean contingent.

The next question is: Will this match have any implications beyond Rome? A Zverev win would. With the Top 4 players recovering or scuffling at the moment, the German may suddenly find himself on the short list of serious Grand Slam title contenders. I didn’t see that coming at the start of Rome, either.

Winner: Zverev