Rome ATP preview: Djokovic and Nadal in, Sinner and Alcaraz out

The verdict is still out, at least for me, on whether the two-week Masters 1000s are better or worse than the one-week versions of old. But it is nice to have a little more time—i.e., a day or two—to take a breath and gear up for Rome after Madrid.

You might think the extra rest would help keep player injuries at bay, but alas, that’s not the case this year. The tour’s two brightest young stars, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, have pulled out of Rome—the Spaniard with an arm issue, the Italian with a hip problem.

On the brighter side, Novak Djokovic returns this week, and defending champion Daniil Medvedev, who also hurt himself in Madrid, remains in the draw. And Rafael Nadal will get to say another good-bye, on court rather than off it.

Click HERE for the full draw.

First Quarter

Was Djokovic the real winner of Madrid? By staying home, he avoided the injuries that are plaguing Alcaraz, Sinner and Medvedev, and may have risen back to the top of the Roland Garros favorite list in the process.

Still, his current state remains in flux. While Djokovic performed well enough to reach the semifinals in Monte Carlo, he has also recently parted ways with his head coach and physio. Rome, where Djokovic is a six-time champion, is often the place where he dials in and gets his clay game together before heading for Paris.

This year, the second-highest seed in Djokovic’s quarter is the man who beat him in Monte Carlo, Casper Ruud; they could meet in the quarters. Aside from that, this looks like a manageable section. Other seeds include Ben Shelton, Francisco Cerundolo and Karen Khachanov.

Semifinalist: Djokovic

Second Quarter

Alexander Zverev and Grigor Dimitrov started 2024 exceptionally well. Dimitrov won in Brisbane and made the final in Miami; Zverev made the semis at the Australian Open and Miami. Each looked primed to continue those good runs during the clay swing. But seasons are long, and for most mortals they come with lulls, and that’s where the German and Bulgarian find themselves now. Zverev is just 4-3 on clay so far, Dimitrov 3-2.

With the pullouts in Rome, though, they occupy the top two seed positions in this quarter. Can either of them start to turn things around?

Zverev, a former champion and finalist here, would seem to have a good opportunity to make the quarters at least. The three seeds closest to him are Mariano Navone, Tallon Griekspoor and Alexander Bublik.

Dimitrov’s road might be rockier. He could face local favorite Lorenzo Musetti in the third round, and then either Taylor Fritz of Sebastian Korda.

Semifinalist: Zverev

Third Quarter

Before the clay swing started, a quarter led by Andrey Rublev and Stefanos Tsitsipas might have seemed a bit meh. But now that the Greek and the Russian have won the first two clay Masters 1000s, in Monte Carlo and Madrid, this section has ramifications.

Rublev is the highest seed and has the most momentum. The question is whether he has the stamina after overcoming a bout with a mysterious illness in Madrid. The first seed he could face is Arthur Fils.

Tsitsipas came out of the clay gates at breakneck speed before cooling off in Madrid. Which should make him dangerous in Rome. He has the tougher half of his section; either Alex de Minaur or Felix Auger-Aliassime could be his round-of-16 opponent.

Also here: Matteo Berrettini, who starts against fellow Italian Stefano Napolitano.

Winner: Tsitsipas

Fourth Quarter

Medvedev broke through with his first title on clay in Rome last year. Will he be ready to defend it, after retiring with a hip injury late last week in Madrid? If he is, he may have Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Tommy Paul or Frances Tiafoe to go through in the early rounds. On the other side of this section, Holger Rune and Hubert Hurkacz are the top seeds.

But they aren’t the famous figures here: Rafael Nadal will start his final campaign at the Foro Italico against a qualifier; the winner will play Hurkacz.

Hubi was Roger Federer’s last opponent at Wimbledon. Could he be Rafa’s final foe in Rome?

Semifinalist: Rune

Semifinals: Djokovic d. Zverev; Tsitsipas d. Rune

Final: Tsitsipas d. Djokovic