Rome Preview: Can anyone stop Sinner—and will order return on the WTA Tour?

Madrid and Rome aren’t the biggest clay events of the year. That title still belong to Roland Garros. But the quick shift from the Caja Magica to the Foro Italico can feel like the peak of the dirt-ball swing. In the space of 24 hours, the tours move from one Masters 1000 event to the next, and from one of the sport’s most modern complexes to one of its most historic. The surface has the same name as it does in Madrid, but everything else—from the fans to the arenas to the altitude to the sun to the pine trees—feels new in Rome.

Also new are the draws. Now that they’ve been made, and everyone has their paths set for the next two weeks, here are five things to watch for at the Italian Open.

Click for Full Draw: ATP Rome | WTA Rome

Jannik Sinner rolls on

If Sinner was out to avenge his suspension from last season, he has now succeeded. In 2025, he was forced to miss four Masters 1000s, in Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, and Madrid. In 2026, he has won them all, while dropping just two sets.

That run of brilliance has left him, oddly, in a slight quandary. Knowing that his ultimate goal is to peak for Roland Garros, and knowing that he has essentially played non-stop for two months, what makes more sense: Playing Rome or getting rest? Rest might seem to be the safer option, but skipping his national event would mean he’d come to Paris having not played a match in three weeks.

So Sinner is playing. He’s the top seed and the heavy favorite, and he should be motivated to win his first title at home and extend his ranking-point lead. If he’s looking for more “feedback” on his clay game, as he likes to say, he should get that, too. He’s scheduled to play Arthur Fils in the round of 16.

🔸 Sinner’s potential path to the title: 2R: Michelsen | 3R: Mensik | 4R: Fils | QF: Shelton | SF: Medvedev | F: Zverev

Top women try to recover from Madrid mayhem

For the first three and a half months of 2026, the WTA mostly stayed true to its rankings. Then the last two weeks set the tour on its ear.

Coming in to Madrid, Aryna Sabalenka was the player to beat, Elena Rybakina was the player most likely to beat her, Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff were Roland Garros champs lying in wait, and Jessica Pegula looked set to to make a run at another final in the Spanish capital.

None of them ended up making the semifinals, and only Sabalenka reached the quarters. Instead, Marta Kostyuk added her name to the clay conversation by winning her first 1000 title; Mirra Andreeva reminded us of her sky-high potential on the surface by making the final; and Hailey Baptiste beat Paolini, Bencic and Sabalenka.

Which leaves us to wonder: Will order be restored in Rome, or is there more upheaval to come?

Judging by recent history, it could go either way. Last year, home favorite Jasmine Paolini made a Cinderella run to the title. At the same time, though, the top four—Sabalenka, Rybakina, Swiatek, Gauff—have all won in Rome or made the final in the recent past.

Here’s a look at their potential paths back to the title match in 2026.

1️⃣ Sabalenka: 2R: Krejcikova | 3R: Cirstea | 4R: Noskova | QF: Anisimova | SF: Gauff

2️⃣ Gauff: 2R: Putintseva or Valentova | 3R: Raducanu | 4R: Jovic | QF: Andreeva | SF: Sabalenka

3️⃣ Swiatek: 2R: Kasatkina or McNally | 3R: Navarro | 4R: Osaka | QF: Pegula or Muchova | SF: Rybakina

4️⃣ Rybakina: 2R: Sakkari | 3R: Wang Xinyu | 4R: Kostyuk | QF: Svitolina | SF: Swiatek

Of the four, Swiatek and Gauff have the most work to do to put themselves in contention in Paris.

What's next for Madrid stars Jodar, Baptiste, Blockx and Kostyuk?

• Rafael Jodar’s spring surge has landed him the 32nd and final seed; not bad for a 19-year-old who was virtually unknown to the public two months ago. His early opponents in Rome could include Nuno Borges and Alex de Minaur. The top seed in his quarter is Alexander Zverev.
• Alexander Blockx, a 21-year-old Belgian who was also way under the radar at the start of the year, reached the round of 16 in Monte Carlo and the semis in Madrid. He’s not seeded in Rome, but it’s only a matter of time before he gets there. This week he’ll start against another newbie, Federico Cina; after that, he could play Tallon Griekspoor and then Zverev.
• Marta Kostyuk says she has finally let go of the expectations that have dogged her since she joined the tour as a bona fide prodigy at 13. Will doing so help her finally fulfill those expectations? She’s off to a good start with her title last week. She could face Karolina Pliskova in her first match in Rome, and Rybakina two rounds later.
• Hailey Baptiste, like Jodar, has snagged the 32nd and final seeding spot this week. If she wins her opening match, she could face Svitolina; if she wins that, she could face Swiatek.

What can we expect from Novak Djokovic?

I was a little startled to see Djokovic’s name pop out as I looked down the men’s draw. He’s played just two tournaments this year, the Australian Open and Indian Wells, and after his long good-bye at Roland Garros last year, I half-expected him to skip the clay swing entirely this time around.

But here he is, still seeded third, and still a six-time champion in Rome. The fact that Carlos Alcaraz will be absent in Paris must give Djokovic a little more hope that he could get Slam No. 25 there.

As far as how he’ll do this week, the signals are distinctly mixed.

On the plus side, he won Rome as recently as 2022, his career record at the Foro is 68-12, and he has never lost in the opening round. Last year, he didn’t win a match in Monte Carlo, Madrid or Rome, but still made the semis in Paris. So he can, still, kick it into gear when he needs to.

On the minus side: He’s about to turn 39, and he hasn’t played a match on clay in 11 months.

At that age, nothing may come easily for him. But he has landed in a decent section of the draw.

🔸 Djokovic's path to the final: 2R: Fucsovics | 3R: Humbert | 4R: Khachanov | QF: Musetti | SF: Zverev

Who’s going to win Rome? Steve Tignor's Picks:

Men

• Semifinals: Sinner d. Flavio Cobolli; Jodar d. Lorenzo Musetti
• Final: Sinner d. Jodar

Women

• Semifinals: Sabalenka d. Andreeva; Muchova d. Rybakina
• Final: Sabalenka d. Muchova