Rome Betting Preview: Mirra Andreeva vs. Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff beat Mirra Andreeva 7-5, 6-1 in the quarterfinals of the Mutua Madrid Open, and the two now clash in the same round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. After what happened two weeks ago, Gauff is going to come into this match with some real confidence, as she really out-classed the 18-year-old. After a sloppy start, Gauff broke Andreeva when the Russian was serving for the first set, and it was one-way traffic from there.

However, when betting on sports, it’s important not to let one recent result impact your decision making. With that in mind, it’s hard not to look at Andreeva as a decent value play in Rome. In Madrid, the Russian was a -125 favorite, but she’s going off at +115 in conditions that are more favorable for her. So I’m taking a shot on Andreeva to get revenge—which would also mean beating Gauff for the very first time.

While the score of the last match doesn’t paint a pretty picture for Andreeva, it is worth noting that she had two set points in the opening set. From there, she completely spiraled, both physically and mentally. Gauff also sensed what was happening on the other side of the net, raised her level and removed all doubt. But it did take a pretty big collapse from Andreeva, who is normally a sturdy player. And it’s hard to imagine her coming to the court and replicating that performance, especially in slower conditions.

We saw at Indian Wells that Andreeva is a nightmare to beat if it’s difficult for opponents to hit winners. That was true even for world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, who can usually hit winners against anybody. Well, on these courts in Rome, Andreeva’s defense along the baseline should be similarly valuable. And Gauff is a player that can sometimes play her worst tennis when she is asked to be bolder from the back of the court.

There’s no denying that Gauff is surging right now. The American’s serve is clicking, she’s hitting her forehand with confidence, and she just looks to be enjoying herself on the court. But when Andreeva is at the peak of her powers, she’s a top-tier player on the WTA Tour. Everything we have seen this year backs that up. So, it feels odd to be giving her less than a 50 percent chance of winning this match against a player that can occasionally beat herself.

Moving forward, I expect this to be a back-and-forth head-to-head series, and it could be the type of matchup in which it always makes sense to take the underdog. Let’s put that to the test in the Eternal City.

Pick: Andreeva ML (+115)