Rome Betting Preview: Peyton Stearns vs. Jasmine Paolini

Jasmine Paolini looked like she was in serious trouble against Diana Shnaider in the quarterfinals. The Italian lost the opening set in a tiebreaker, and she then went down 4-0 in the second set. Fortunately, Paolini was able to turn it on from there, rattling off six straight games to win set two and then cruising in a 6-2 decider. The crowd in Rome clearly got to Shnaider in that one, but Paolini also leveled up and played much better tennis after a disastrous start. Now, she has a golden opportunity to make the Internazionali BNL d’Italia final, as she’s facing a worn-down Peyton Stearns. With that in mind, I’m taking the Italian to cover 2.5 games.

Stearns is the definition of a “dog.” She never stops fighting on a tennis court, and she never accepts defeat. We saw that when she beat Naomi Osaka 6-4, 3-6, 7-6 (4) and then immediately vomited after the match. She pushes herself well beyond her limits, and that’s why she has been able to win three consecutive matches in third-set tiebreakers. However, at some point, all of this tennis is going to catch up to her. And that could happen against Paolini.

Read more: Peyton Stearns is the first player in the Open Era to win three consecutive WTA matches in third-set tiebreakers

In Stearns’ win over Elina Svitolina, she looked to be running out of gas late. She coughed away a big lead in the second set, and she was down a break in the third. But the crowd actually got behind her, giving her some of the adrenaline she needed to finish the match. Svitolina also helped her out by crumbling a bit late. But Stearns can’t expect to have any support from the crowd against Paolini. The Italian is absolutely adored by her people, and they’re going to let her hear it as she tries to reach the final.

Paolini just needs to find a way to manage her own emotions here. Playing in front of your own fans can mean a little extra pressure, and that looked to be weighing on her against Shnaider last round. But I ultimately think the bigger concerns will be on the other side of the court.

This is also a pretty good on-court matchup for Paolini. On the season, Paolini has a higher hold percentage and break percentage than Stearns, and she also has had more clay-court success than her opponent—though the American does deserve some love for having a 15-4 record on the dirt over the last 52 weeks. Paolini’s backhand should also be the best shot on the court here, and the Italian’s ability to come up and finish points at the net shouldn’t be glossed over.

Pick: Paolini -2.5 Games (-146)