Rome WTA preview: Will the Big 3 of Swiatek, Sabalenka and Rybakina extend their rule?

Last week in Madrid, it was the men’s event that provided the surprises—and, unfortunately, the injuries—while the women’s draw went to form. Exceptionally so: No. 2 seed Aryna Sabalenka edged No. 3 Elena Rybakina in a third-set tiebreaker in the semis, before falling to No. 1 Iga Swiatek in another third-set tiebreaker in the final. The WTA’s Big 3, it seemed, was back, and the rivalry between Swiatek and Sabalenka had reached a new peak.

Can they do it again in Rome? Would they even want to, with Roland Garros around the corner? Swiatek, Sabalenka and Rybakina, along with most of the rest of the tour’s Top 20, are lined up at the starting gates at the Foro Italico. Here’s a look at how their race for the title may play out.

Click HERE for the full draw.

First Quarter

Swiatek learned to love Madrid’s clay this year, but she’s always been comfortable on Rome’s. She’s a two-time champion here, with a 14-2 record. While she fought Sabalenka for three hours on Saturday, the newly extended 1000-event schedules should give her an extra day or two before she has to start grinding again.

Swiatek’s quarter doesn’t present any obvious obstacles. The second-highest seed is Marketa Vondrousova, who is 0-3 against Iga and has had an ordinary-at-best 2024 season so far. Of more interest may be a possible round-of-16 encounter with Ekaterina Alexandrova, who upset Swiatek in Miami in March.

Also here: Madrid semifinalist and one-time Rome finalist Madison Keys.

Semifinalist: Swiatek

Second Quarter

Where does all the talk about the Big 3 leave the woman who is actually ranked third in the world, Coco Gauff? She hasn’t had a memorable clay season so far, losing to Marta Kostyuk in the quarters in Stuttgart, and to Keys in the round of 16 in Madrid. But the loss to Keys was close, and Coco did make the semis in Rome back in 2021. She could play former Roland Garros champion Barbora Krejcikova in her second match.

Zheng Qinwen, the top seed on the other side of this section, also comes in as a question mark. The Australian Open finalist has been treading water for the last three months, and she retired with a leg injury in Madrid. But the 21-year-old made the quarterfinals in Rome a year ago.

First-round matches to watch:

• Naomi Osaka vs. Clara Burel
• Paula Badosa vs. Mirra Andreeva

Semifinalist: Gauff

Third Quarter

Rybakina’s serve-based, offense-first style wouldn’t seem to be a natural for clay, but she made it work to the tune of a title in Rome last year. She is playing just as well on the surface in 2024, having won Stuttgart and reaching the Madrid semis. All of which suggests she’ll be there at the business end of this tournament next weekend.

Who might stand in her way? The player who sticks out is Danielle Collins, who beat Rybakina in the Miami final last month.

Also here: Maria Sakkari, Victoria Azarenka, Caroline Garcia, and last year’s finalist, Anhelina Kalinina.

Semifinalist: Rybakina

Fourth Quarter

Sabalenka says she’s happy to have a few more days after Madrid to get ready for Rome. In 2023, the transition didn’t go so well for her: After winning Madrid, she lost to Sofia Kenin in her opener here. In general, this hasn’t been Sabalenka’s tournament; her record at the Foro is just 4-5.

Will Sabalenka suffer from another hangover, after squandering match points against Swiatek on Saturday? Or will she be more motivated because of that defeat? There are some good players in her quarter, including Dayana Yastremska, Elina Svitolina, Anna Kalinskaya, Jelena Ostapenko and Ons Jabeur. Kenin is here too, but safely on the other side of the section.

Semifinalist: Sabalenka

Semifinals: Swiatek d. Gauff; Rybakina d. Sabalenka

Final: Rybakina d. Swiatek