Rybakina vs. Jabeur, Medvedev vs. Eubanks, Alcaraz vs. Rune: Three to See, Wimbledon Quarterfinals

Eubanks and Alcaraz each look to flip the script against their opponents, though it's Jabeur who has the biggest loss to avenge Wednesday in a rematch of last year's women's final at SW19.

BySteve Tignor

Published Jul 11, 2023

Ons Jabeur Credits "Good Karma" & Sincere Energy To Popularity | Wimbledon

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Elena Rybakina vs. Ons Jabeur

Last year’s final is this year’s quarter. Obviously, we have some pretty good data on how this match might play out. In 2022, Jabeur started well, but then tried to be too deceptive for her own good on some key shots. Rybakina, meanwhile, rode her strong serve through the last two sets, and didn’t show much in the way of nerves closing it out. They haven’t played since.

Of the two, Jabeur is the one who has likely replayed that match in her mind the most. Will she taken a lesson from it, and attempt a little less finesse and little more straightforward ball-striking? She has already been tested by a heavy hitter, Bianca Andreescu, and she responded with a comeback win. Rybakina’s test came when she lost the first set of her first-round match, against Shelby Rogers; since then, she’s been quietly dominant.

Jabeur does have two wins over Rybakina in the past. But it’s probably a little simpler for Rybakina to find a winning formula on a big, nervy occasion like this one. If she gets down early, she’ll know she can come back. Winner: Rybakina

Rybakina is 12-1 in majors this season (withdrew prior to her third-round match at Roland Garros with illness).

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Daniil Medvedev vs. Chris Eubanks

Eubanks’ first breakout run to a quarterfinal this year, in Miami, ended with a straight-set loss to Medvedev. Will the same thing happen again, or will the American make an adjustment based on what happened that day?

Every Medvedev match has a chess-like quality, as he lulls his opponent with seemingly safe and harmless ground strokes, before suddenly injecting a jolt of pace into a rally. It may be best for Eubanks to just keep doing what he’s been doing: Attacking off his serve, taking cracks with his improved backhand, and planting his long body and wide wingspan at net. If Medvedev retreats to his standard return position 10 feet behind the baseline, he’ll be inviting Eubanks to follow his bending serve to net.

It would be easy to believe that this is where the Eubanks train stops. Medvedev is the No. 3 seed for a reason. But Eubanks just beat the No. 5 seed, Stefanos Tsitsipas; he’s tough to break; and by his own admission Medvedev is not a grass-court specialist. The surface probably favors the American. So I’ll say he has one at least one more stunner in him. Winner: Eubanks

After his first Top 5 win Monday, can Eubanks grab a maiden Top 3 victory Wednesday?

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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Holger Rune

These two 20-year-olds were born within a week of each other, and played doubles together as juniors. But they have yet to play a completed, conventionally scored match as pros. Alcaraz beat Rune at the Next Gen Finals a couple of years ago, an event where sets only go to four. Rune returned the favor in Bercy last year, in a match where Alcaraz was forced to retire due to an oblique injury. Retirement or no, Rune proved that day that he’s not intimidated by his old friend and current ATP No. 1, and that he can outplay him on the right day.

When this grass season started, Alcaraz and Rune were each still finding their way on the surface. It’s hard to say that’s true anymore. Alcaraz won Queen’s, while Rune made the semis there, and now they’ve won four matches each at Wimbledon. Alcaraz was impressive in fending off strong early challenges from Nicolas Jarry and Matteo Berrettini. Rune made a miraculous escape against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, 10-8 in a fifth-set tiebreaker, and is 5-0 in tiebreakers overall.

Alcaraz is the slightly better mover and ball-striker, but that would be true against anyone. Rune is, so far, the slightly better match player and clutch performer. It could go either way, but the top seed has been looking more like a top seed as the tournament has gone on. Winner: Alcaraz

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